The second major of the golf year takes place this week when the majority of the best players in the world head to Oklahoma for the USPGA Championship, with Southern Hills the venue for what should be a superb week of golf.
Phil Mickelson won this tournament in memorable style at Kiawah Island 12 months ago but with all the complications he is currently having he has withdrawn from his title defence so we are guaranteed a different winner this week.
Recent Winners
2021 – Phil Mickelson
2020 – Collin Morikawa
2019 – Brooks Koepka
2018 – Brooks Koepka
2017 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Jimmy Walker
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Jason Dufner
2012 – Rory McIlroy
The Course
Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa hosts the tournament for the first time in 15 years. The course has undergone an extensive facelift in that time but when the Senior US Open was here last year many of the same characteristics were still in play. The course is a par 70 this week and while it can play longer the official yardage is 7,365 yards. It is expected to be hot in Oklahoma so the ball will probably fly further which means the track is longer than it sounds.
The landing spots off the tee tend to be on the generous side here which means that taming this course is down to the iron play, whether that is into the greens where precision and accuracy is needed due to the large run off areas, or the chipping clubs because the winner this week is surely going to need to be a very good scrambler. This is a major championship so you would expect whoever wins to have a good week on the greens. This is an exposed layout and breeze is forecast this week so elevate comfortable wind players up your shortlist.
The Field
The field might lack the defending champion Phil Mickelson this week but it is boosted hugely by the appearance of former winner here Tiger Woods. The golfing legend will tee it up for the second time this year and will be looking to put on a show. The world number one Scottie Scheffler will be looking to continue his bid for the calendar Grand Slam this week while Jordan Spieth will go in search of the only major title he is yet to get his hands on.
They are the big stories of the week but there are plenty of other big names looking to write a positive chapter of their own story. They include former winners Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day. The likes of Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay and Will Zalatoris will all go in search of a first major title while players such as Shane Lowry, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama will look to add to their collection of the biggest tournaments in the sport.
Market Leaders
We have joint favourites for the tournament this week and they come in the form of the world number one Scottie Scheffler and the man he replaced at the top of the rankings in Jon Rahm. Scheffler is entitled to be the man to beat having won four times this season already, including in the previous major at Augusta but winning successive majors is not an easy thing to do which puts me off at 12/1. After a slow start to the season, Rahm finally came good in Mexico in his last start and it might be that this track is ideal for him. I still think you’re taking a chance on his putter cooperating though.
Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas come next in the betting at 16/1. McIlroy has won this tournament in the past but hasn’t looked in the sort of form that suggests he is about to land another big title in recent times. Thomas continues to hit the ball brilliantly from tee to green but his putting fails him and then just out of nowhere he’ll deliver a shocking swing which will cost him dearly. In what might be a higher scoring USPGA than usual that could cost him.
Jordan Spieth is 18/1 to complete the set of major titles this week. That in itself is a huge negative as we have seen for a decade the pressure that Rory McIlroy carries whenever he goes to The Masters. That said, Spieth won The Heritage last month and probably should have won the Byron Nelson Championship last week only for a bit of a mare at the tenth on Sunday to cost him the title. I wouldn’t be keen to be too much against him but that desire to win this for the set is enough to put me off backing him.
The 2020 winner Collin Morikawa is back for another tilt at this title and he is 20/1 to win it. You don’t really associate Morikawa has someone who plays well in the wind but there is no doubt he’s as good as they come in the prime requirement around here which is iron play. However all too often what he gains with the irons he loses on the greens. When he won this tournament he shot -13 and the winning score might not get that low so he is a danger but I prefer others.
Main Bets
I’m not usually one for three main bets but as this is a major and I can’t pick two out of the three I’ll allow myself a third here. I don’t think too many will be surprised that the first of them is Cameron Smith. Twice I’ve been on him when he has won this season and there is a good chance that had his tee shot on number 12 in the final round of The Masters got over Rae’s Creek I’d have been on him when he won that too. The negative with Smith this week is the driver but he has spoken about putting a lot of work in on the radar of that club rather than pounding distance. It is firm and fast here so he won’t need the extra distance anyway. If he finds a fair percentage of fairways he’s the man to beat for me. He is so good into the greens and truly elite around them. He’s also very good on the greens and might have the bit between his teeth to make up for the disappointment of The Masters where he still finished third. Smith is a standout operator here if that driver cooperates.
There are certainly no concerns over the long game of Shane Lowry. I don’t think he has hit the ball any better than he has so far in 2022. The ironic thing is that in terms of his numbers the long game prowess has come at the expense of his short game but that can only be an anomaly because the Irishman has one of the best short games in the world. There are similarities between this place and Portrush where Lowry won The Open and also with Augusta where the Irishman just finished third at The Masters. We know he will putt well and we know he can handle anything the elements throw at him. Lowry would have won The Honda Classic but for a badly timed downpour and has finished third at both The Masters and The Heritage. He’s primed for major number two this week.
The most recent winner of my main bets comes in the form of Max Homa, the man who came out on top at the Wells Fargo Championship a couple of weeks ago. Homa hasn’t really contested in a major yet in his career but that is the next step for him after he has won tournaments of a decent quality in the form of the Genesis Invitational and Wells Fargo. Homa has his long game in excellent order and he gained more than eight strokes on the field with the putter at the Wells Fargo Championship. As well as his win two weeks ago, Homa has top 15 finishes at Riviera, Phoenix and TPC Sawgrass this season. He is trending towards being a factor in a tournament like this and I fancy this could be the week it clicks for him.
Outsiders
Cameron Young looks like a pretty obvious outside bet this week. You could argue that it is a little early in his career for him to be putting in a big show in a major but this is a player who has top three finishes at the Genesis Invitational, The Heritage and Wells Fargo this term as well as top 20 finishes at The Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational. The chief reason for his success has been the fact that in his last eight recorded events he hasn’t been outside the top four in strokes gained off the tee. That in term has set up excellent approach numbers but he is also competent around the greens. If there is a weakness it is on the greens but very few players in this field will have putted on these greens so that isn’t the negative it might be on other weeks. He looks a perfectly fair bet.
Another obvious outsider is Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton has twice won the Alfred Dunhill Links and is notoriously good in the wind. He has all the shot shaping requirements for here and his short game stands up to most in the world. You could argue that the driver doesn’t always cooperate but when it does he is a force to be reckoned with. Hatton goes very well on exposed layouts as his links record would suggest and coming in here under the radar might just suit him nicely. Despite his so called poor form he still has four top 10 finishes this year and a top 15 at The Players Championship. I expect him to emulate that this week.
Kevin Na is another player who holds up well to the challenge this week from a statistical standpoint. Over the last couple of months he sits at 10 in this field for strokes gained on approach and just outside the top 20 on strokes gained around the greens. They are the two things that should be needed most this week but we know he is pretty straight off the tee and in the main he has gotten more reliable with the putter over the past couple of seasons. Na has won the Charles Schwab Challenge which has the same grass layout as Southern Hills and he’s won the Sony Open to tick the wind box. If it all clicks this week he looks certain to outrun his price.
My last bet is a bit of a flyer in the dark in Min Woo Lee but I wonder if it is significant that he saw off a very good field at the Scottish Open last year in conditions which won’t be too dissimilar to those he will experience this week. He definitely ticked the wind box when he won the Vic Open and also the fast and firm course box too. Just last month Min Woo Lee was in the top 15 at The Masters so like most Australian sportsmen the bigger the occasion the better he seems to play. A man who has an excellent long game, likes the wind and relishes the occasion feels like a big price in the 200/1 region.
Tips
Back C.Smith to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back S.Lowry to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back M.Homa to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-9)
Back them here:
Back M.Woo Lee to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-11)
Back him here:
Back C.Young to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Hatton to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back K.Na to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
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