The DP World Tour remains in Spain this week but heads to the iconic Valderrama Golf Club for the latest staging of the Andalucia Masters, the second leg of the Iberian Swing which got off to a wonderful start in Madrid last week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick won on the most iconic course in Europe last year and the US Open champion is back to defend the title against a competitive field where the golf course is sure to sort the men out from the boys.
Recent Winners
2021 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2020 – John Catlin
2019 – Christiaan Bezuidenhout
2018 – Sergio Garcia
2017 – Sergio Garcia
The Course
We are back at the Real Club Valderrama this week. The track is a par 71 which measures 7,028 yards so it isn’t overly long but it is very much a place where the pure ball strikers shine. You need a good short game around here too because all the greens have run off areas but it is a track to be played from the short grass, especially this time of year where the rough might have a bit of juice to it. This is usually a high scoring tournament, +2 and -6 the last two winning scores.
The players had a fairly tame introduction to Spain again last week but they will be treated to a properly prepared course and the undulating fairways mean only those who are hitting the ball sweetly will score around here. Statistics wise we are looking at greens in regulation or strokes gained tee to green. Scrambling has become a feature around here too. Generally this course produces a top class winner.
The Field
Two of the top three players in the Race to Dubai rankings tee it up this week. Rory McIlroy heads those rankings but he isn’t here this week so Matthew Fitzpatrick and Ryan Fox have the chance to make a big move on the Northern Irishman. They are the only two players from the top 50 in the world rankings who tee it up this week. Adrian Meronk is eighth on the Race to Dubai list and he is also here looking to make a move up those rankings.
We also have another seven players in the top 20 on the R2D standings which means they have had good seasons. They are Thriston Lawrence, Ewen Ferguson, Robert MacIntyre, Jordan Smith, the home man Pablo Larrazabal, Callum Shinkwin and Thorbjorn Olesen. Rasmus Hojgaard, Guido Migliozzi and another home player Adrian Otaegui are just outside the top 20 on that list. Others to note include Min Woo Lee, Thomas Detry and Antoine Rozner.
Market Leaders
Matthew Fitzpatrick is a standout class act in the field this week and as such he is 5/1 to make a successful defence of the title. I don’t normally take defending champions and I’m not going to change that stance here but Fitzpatrick would be one who tempts me after the year he’s had, the fact that class acts tend to win around here and that he has more than most to play for with his position in the Race to Dubai standings. Ultimately though better value lies elsewhere.
Such is the gulf in class between Fitzpatrick and the rest of the field that Robert MacIntyre is the next in the betting but he is a 22/1 shot to win the title. The Italian Open champion has finished 24-53 in two spins around here but he comes into the week in decent form and probably is the second likeliest winner in the field. He hasn’t won on a course as tough as this one before though and that puts me off a touch.
Ryan Fox and Min Woo Lee are both 25/1 to win the title this week. You wouldn’t think either are natural Valderrama winners with both favouring courses where the driver can be let loose with freedom. You can still use the big stick around here but you have to be accurate with it so there will be pressure on them. Lee was runner up to Fitzpatrick last year though so he has shown form on the track before and comes in here off the back of finishing third last week. Fox won the Dunhill Links last time out and was fourth here last year but I expect the course to play harder here.
Main Bets
I like ball strikers this week and accurate ones at that. That brings Jordan Smith into play. He has an obvious weakness with the putter but I think the winner this week will excel from tee to green rather than on the greens. He only needs to be average on the greens here to have every chance. Smith is third in overall strokes gained on the DP World Tour this season and second off the tee which is so much of this test. He is also in the top 10 when it comes to approach play as well so he should set up a lot of chances to score well here. If his short game can just keep afloat he is the man to beat if anything happens to Fitzpatrick.
Fabrizio Zanotti was fourth here last year and that doesn’t surprise me because he is extremely solid from tee to green. He ranks at 10 on strokes gained from tee to green on the tour this season and arrives in Spain off the back of four top 16 finishes in his last seven starts. He missed the cut last time out in Italy which was a bit of a surprise but that was the fourth straight week he had played so the tank might just have been empty then. He has had a couple of weeks off now and should be refreshed for a positive tilt on a course which suits him. He was ranked 10 for strokes gained putting in an elite field at the Scottish Open so if the putter is that warm this week he shouldn’t be far away.
Outsiders
Matthew Southgate is probably best attributed to his best golf being played on links courses but he is in decent form all told in recent times. His last six outings have yielded finishes of 23-4-13-27-50-28 with the 50 coming in Paris where he finished with a 76 else he would have been much further up the leaderboard there. The key to those successes have been his long game. In driving accuracy for those six weeks he has figures of 12-38-23-13-5-9 and GIR ranks of 46-2-6-18-21-7. The obvious thing to take out of all of those is that his long game is in very good order. That means if he can putt well, and he’s played here enough to know how the greens play by now, then he should have a decent week.
Zander Lombard doesn’t have a great record around here but he does have two top 10 finishes in his last seven starts and one of those was in Spain last week. What caught my eye though is that three times in those seven starts he has ranked inside the top eight in strokes gained tee to green and inside the top 14 for strokes gained on approach. He was in the top 15 in two of those efforts for scrambling and last week ranked 21 for gaining strokes with the putter. Those two top 10 finishes have been on wide open courses but the other week where those numbers came up was in Denmark where everything is tight much like this place. That convinces me to pay to see how close he can go to the win this week.
Tips
Back J.Smith to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Southgate to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back Z.Lombard to win Zndalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back F.Zanotti to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
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