The Big Bash League is back in Tasmania on Monday as the Hobart Hurricanes look to repair their season when they take on the Melbourne Stars in what is a huge match for both teams at Blundstone Arena.
We are not quite in the last chance saloon for these two teams but they both need to start winning sooner rather than later else they are going to let the top five get away from them and will be watching on when the postseason comes around.
Hobart Hurricanes
Despite having a squad which really should be dominating this competition, the Hobart Hurricanes haven’t been able to get anything going this season and time is beginning to run out for them to be a factor. Their net run rate is so poor after five defeats in eight matches that you would imagine they are only getting into the top five with eight wins so in order to get that they need to win five of their last six matches, which feels a tough ask.
If there is a positive from a poor run of form for the Hurricanes it is that it is staring them in the face where they are going wrong. To be fair to them, they are changing their bowlers regularly enough trying to find a combination which will put pressure on the opposing batters. If they can stumble across that then there is some hope for the Hurricanes because their own batting looks in pretty decent order even allowing for the fact they need to bat above par to compensate for their bowlers.
Melbourne Stars
The Melbourne Stars go into this match with two wins in their eight matches to date and are already four points off the top five, which is effectively five points given the difference in run rate. That means they are probably going to have to win out from here in order to make it through to the finals but even allowing for T20 being a volatile beast, I think we can say with a fair bit of assurance that they won’t be doing that, so this is going to be another season of flattering to deceive for the Stars.
The problem the Stars have had is they haven’t really impressed on either side of the ball. Occasional quality individual innings have got them up to a competitive score but there haven’t been enough of them. They haven’t bowled all that well. Their overseas bowlers have got wickets but the home bowlers just haven’t backed them up and in the end the Stars have generally been beaten quite easily when they have lost. They now have to cope without Trent Boult who has left and for this match Marcus Stoinis who is out injured.
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Key Players
There is no Matthew Wade for the Hobart Hurricanes here so you would imagine Ben McDermott is going to need to go big in order to compensate for the loss. He has been in good form since he came back into the side and should tuck into this Stars side.
This Hobart Hurricanes attack is there for the taking and it will be interesting to see where Beau Webster bats for the Melbourne Stars here because he has the potential to get after it. He can also bowl four tidy overs so he feels key to any chance of a Stars success.
Betting
When you look at the way these two teams are playing right now I find it hard to believe that this isn’t going to be a high scoring match. The Hurricanes have conceded 164/4 in 18.1 overs, 230/3 in 19.3 overs, 177/6 and 228/6 in their last four matches and I don’t see why that would change here. It might be that they don’t concede quite to those extremes against this Stars side but we shouldn’t forget that Melbourne Stars have already taken this Hurricanes attack for 183/5 so it can’t be ruled out.
Rather than trust the team batting second to get to a certain score to cover a run line, I like the over on the 35.5 boundaries line. In that match between the two at a much bigger Melbourne Cricket Ground earlier in the season, there were 33 boundaries and that was in the opening game of the season for the Hurricanes before their batters built up a head to steam. We only need three more boundaries here and with no Trent Boult for the Hurricanes to navigate I think we’ll get them. There were 46 boundaries in the last game here so 36 is well within range for these two batting units.
Tips
Back Over 35.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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