Giro d’Italia stage 5 on Wednesday is the second longest of the race. The stage covers 233kms from Praia a Mare to Benevento. I don’t expect to see a change in the race lead today.
The Route
The stage starts in Praia a Mare and within 36kms the only categorised climb of the day – the Category 3 climb at Fortino is crossed. For the next 140kms the road is moderately hilly. There are no more tough climbs but the terrain is rolling. The climbs are not as steep as in Stage 4
None of the sprinters made it to the front group yesterday and it is probable that they were saving themselves for todays stage. Stage 6 on Thursday is the first that features a mountain finish so the main contenders will likely be saving themselves for a showdown tomorrow.
The last 6kms of stage five feature a fast descent for about 4kms with two sharp turns, a short flat section then the final 1km is a gradual uphill with an average gradient of 3.4%. In spite of this a sprint finish from the main bunch is the most probable conclusion to todays stage. That means the breakaway will be controlled by the likes of Etixx et al.
The Contenders
As we have seen Marcel Kittel is a way ahead of everyone else in the sprints. He has shortened somewhat since yesterday evening from 4.50 to 4.00. He is fine in sprints with gradual uphill finishes.
The other riders in with a chance are Démare, Greipel, Ewan, Colbrelli, Modolo, Nizzolo, Viviani, Sbaragli and Porsev. However, can they really beat Kittel in a sprint finish? The bookmakers do not think so as the second favourite for today is Démare at between 8.00-11.00.
Today I will suggest a number of smaller bets – all in the sprinters market – and will return to the head-to-head market for some value.
Bets
Back Marcel Kittel to win the stage with a 2.0/10 stake at 4.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Back Arnaud Démare to beat Andre Greipel ‘head-to-head’ with a 1.5/10 stake at 1.53 with Bet365.
Bet here:
Back Giacomo Nizzolo to beat Sacha Modolo ‘head-to-head’ with a 1.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
