The NFL 2023 Playoffs Super Wildcard Weekend concludes with a double header of action on Monday night when the rearranged clash between the AFC East winners Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers is played out.
The Bills earned home field advantage with a win over the Miami Dolphins last week which saw them claim the AFC East title while the Steelers won their last match and then saw results go their way to be the last team into the postseason.
Buffalo Bills
While last week turned out not to be a do or die clash with the Miami Dolphins after the Jacksonville Jaguars had gifted Buffalo their spot in the playoffs earlier in the day, if they want to host this match it was so they should take a lot of encouragement around the way they won that game and now they get to attempt to win a playoff game on home soil, safe in the knowledge that as the number two seeds they will host another next week if they are victorious here.
The big question is whether the conditions will take away the strength of the Buffalo Bills’ offense which is namely stretching the field with the deep pass. If it does then you get the feeling that Josh Allen and his offense are really going to need to grind for everything they get from this match. That will also mean that they are going to need their defence to come to the party and assist them as well. Staying turnover free is massive though.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
When the Pittsburgh Steelers really needed it they have been able to find their best stuff and they go into the postseason off the back of three successive wins. The last of those, which was last weekend, was do or die so the fact that they have already won an effective knockout match will give them a lot of confidence making the trip to Buffalo, although those who want to knock their achievement will quickly point out that they beat a Baltimore Ravens second string side.
Pittsburgh generally have a unit that is effective at this stage of the season. They are tough on defence and are no strangers to getting their head down and running the ball but those two facets could be even more important with all the snow that is around. If they can hang with the Bills throughout the early to middle stages of this match and keep the run game alive then they are going to be right there come the business end of the contest.
Betting
I’d like to see exactly how bad the conditions are at kick off before I really get involved in this match although I’m looking at it in the early stages as Pittsburgh are getting a point or two too many on the handicaps if the conditions are as detrimental to Buffalo as they could be. I certainly don’t expect a high scoring game here so that in itself would suggest Pittsburgh can stay within 10 but if conditions clear up it isn’t quite a guarantee that it would be should the snow be lingering about.
Regardless of the conditions I think Najee Harris is going to be a big player in this match. He has suddenly caught fire in the last three weeks or so going for 78, 122 and 112 yards on the ground and I think he’ll see so much of the ball here that I expect him to cover what I think is a modest looking rushing yards line at 60.5. Every time this season he has had 15 or more carries he has gone past this line and in these conditions and a match of this magnitude I expect the running back to have at least 15 carries in the form he is in so I’ll play the over on that line.
Tips
Back N.Harris – Over 60.5 rushing yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
