The PGA Tour heads back to California this week for the tournament hosted by Tiger Woods as The Genesis Invitational takes place at the famous Riviera Country Club with a much more select field on a course which never disappoints.
We are guaranteed a different winner this week as Jon Rahm, the 2023 champion, is now playing on the LIV Tour. A much reduced field has been assembled for this tournament, each of whom will be looking to win a leading PGA Tour title.
Recent Winners
2023 – Jon Rahm
2022 – Joaquin Niemann
2021 – Max Homa
2020 – Adam Scott
2019 – JB Holmes
2018 – Bubba Watson
2017 – Dustin Johnson
2016 – Bubba Watson
2015 – James Hahn
2014 – Bubba Watson
The Course
Riviera Country Club is a course for the ages but it always generates a decent tournament. Don’t be swayed by the long hitters on the roll of honour because the course has been soaked in recent years due to bad weather but the one thing we shouldn’t ignore is the amount of Augusta specialists that are on there. This course plays very similar to that one with the only difference being the smaller greens on this Californian track.
The course, which will host the Olympics in four years, is a par 71 which measures 7,322 yards and is very much a second shot golf course. You need good iron play into these greens and because they are small excellent scrambling is also a necessity too. Given that there isn’t a lot of trouble off the tee the bigger hitters can let their driver go but you don’t need length over an excellent second shot and in game. Precise iron play is huge here.
The Field
Usually this is a full field tournament but this is the third Signature Event of the season and that means that we just have 70 runners teeing it up for a competition in which even with some world class talent involved the leading light will be the legendary figure of the host, Tiger Woods. These Signature Events are already showcasing the best against the best and so the appearance of the world number one Scottie Scheffler is also welcomed.
There is a decent European charge teeing it up this week and that includes a number of the winning Ryder Cup team including Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Nicolai Hojgaard. Other leading lights in the tournament include Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and the former champion and closest man to Rahm last season in Max Homa. Adam Scott and Tom Kim are among the internationals in the field.
Market Leaders
As ever when he tees it up in a tournament, Scottie Scheffler is the 13/2 favourite to win this week. He absolutely flushed it from tee-to-green at the Phoenix Open last week but couldn’t hole anything on the soft greens and that putter continues to put me off. He will win again soon I’m sure, he is hitting it too well not to, and to be fair 13/2 is a fair price given how well he is hitting it but he has never made the top five here so maybe this won’t be his week.
Rory McIlroy is never far from the head of the betting in a tournament of this kind either and you can get him at 11/1 on the best prices. He began the year well over on the DP World Tour but this is obviously a level or two up from that. Unlike Scheffler, McIlroy does have an acceptable record around here with a pair of top five finishes and in theory the freedom off the tee should make him go well. He will want to win Tiger’s event too so he shouldn’t be dismissed easily.
Another man who will want to win the event because of who hosts it is the good friend of Tiger Woods in Justin Thomas. He is a 16/1 shot this week along with Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele. When it comes to courses where pinpoint iron play is needed few operate at a better level in that discipline than Hovland and Morikawa so they will definitely be popular. Thomas went well in Phoenix last week but has too many quiet spells over four days for my liking Schauffele has a fair record around here and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly either.
Patrick Cantlay is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 20/1. He can be backed at 18/1 this week but you are taking a bit of a leap of faith over his form. He has started four tournaments this season without much in the way of results but he was third here last year which was his best result in this tournament. He has five top 20 finishes around here so it might be that the weaker field allows him to go well, but that recent form worries me.
Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week with the first of them coming in the form of the man who has done pretty much everything but win here which is Collin Morikawa. He might not be the most attractive price at 16/1 but when you consider he won the ZOZO Championship on a course which is going to demand pretty much everything that this one is going to that certainly makes the price look more attractive. Another reason why I like him is he had last week off and that turned into a bit of a weekend slog for many so that is no bad thing. His record here is very good with a top six and a second placed finish in the last two starts he has had here and with his approach play right up there with the best in the world he only needs the putter to cooperate to take this thing down.
The other man who should have won here before that I like is Tony Finau. He lost out to Max Homa in a playoff that only he will know how he didn’t win a few years ago but he is back for more here. Finau was sixth at Torrey Pines last month which immediately caught my eye and the fact he was nowhere near Phoenix last week can only be taken as a positive now. The rain in this part of the world is going to soften this course up no end which means that the long game of Finau can really thrive and on a track he has performed well on in the past he should be a leading contender once again here.
Outsider
With this being a reduced field and the talent very much at the top of the betting I’ll go with just the one outsider this week. That comes in the form of Emiliano Grillo, the Argentine player whose strength from tee to green could come with plenty of rewards this week. The negative is that he was at the Phoenix Open last week but he closed with a 63 on Sunday so he couldn’t have been particularly tired if he could fire in a round like that and that is an excellent closing effort to take into this week. Grillo has four straight top 25 finishes coming in here so his form is good and if he can make a few putts early in the week he could take a bit of stopping at a nice price.
Tips
Back C.Morikawa to win The Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 17.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Finau to win The Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back E.Grillo to win The Genesis Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-7)
