A key weekend in the Premier League gets underway on Saturday when seven matches take place up and down the country on a day where the top and the bottom of the table are going to be heavily impacted.
We have a typical Saturday schedule to tuck into with TV games at the beginning and the end of the day and five matches in the usual 3pm slot in between them where the updates come in the normal places.
Early Kick Off
We begin in the capital on Saturday afternoon when the early kick off takes us to the Gtech Community Stadium as Brentford look to pull away from the bottom three of the table when they play host to the leaders Liverpool. You sense this is a big game for the Reds as they could reopen a five point lead at the top of the table for a few hours at least. Brentford’s win at Wolves last week has eased their relegation concerns but with Manchester City to come in midweek a defeat here could easily see the Bees sliding back into trouble. This is a big opener to the day.
3pm Matches
There are five matches in the usual 3pm slot on Saturday afternoon and the pick of the games comes from Turf Moor as both ends of the table will be affected when second from bottom Burnley plays host to title chasing Arsenal, who will be looking to follow up their emphatic win over West Ham last weekend. Tottenham are also in action on Saturday afternoon as they look to maintain their spot in the top four. They play host to Wolverhampton Wanderers who might be lacking attacking talent for their trip to the capital.
Three other matches take place at the traditional time on Saturday with one more coming from the capital as Fulham host an Aston Villa side who need to turn the ship around quickly if they are going to keep interest in playing Champions League football next season. The other two games see Newcastle United looking to continue their good recent form when they host AFC Bournemouth while Nottingham Forest will be keen to pick up three points to pull away from the bottom three when they host a West Ham side who may be shellshocked after their 6-0 drubbing at the hands of Arsenal last week.
Late Game
We probably save the best for last on Saturday as Manchester City look to keep up the chase on Liverpool when they host Chelsea in a game which a couple of seasons ago would have been one of the marquee fixtures in the Premier League campaign. Chelsea haven’t really offered up much in the Premier League this season and at some point soon you would imagine their focus will be on the Carabao Cup final next week. These two delivered a 4-4 draw in the reverse meeting at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season and it would be lovely given that this is a TV game if something similar could ensue.
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Match Betting
I like a number of bets over the course of Saturday so I’m ready to get stuck in. The first of them comes at St James’ Park where over 3 goals in the match between Newcastle United and Bournemouth looks good to me. Newcastle might feel that they owe Bournemouth one because they delivered one of their worst displays under Eddie Howe in the reverse fixture so I would imagine they will be out to put that right here. The big problem Newcastle have is their defence has suddenly gone missing. They have shipped 10 goals in their last three games at St James’ Park, seven of which was against Nottingham Forest and Luton Town. Bournemouth have shown that they will go forward on their travels and they have a number of attacking midfielders who can expose the Newcastle lack of an out and out sitting midfielder and the space between the Toon defence and midfield as a result of that. They also have pace out wide should Dan Burn remain on the Newcastle team sheet. Bournemouth have their own defensive vulnerabilities so over 3 looks very much on the radar here.
I haven’t always been keen on Fulham this season but when you look at their results they have won seven of their 12 matches at Craven Cottage this term, losing just four of them and of the four teams to have left their part of London two of them were Chelsea and Manchester United. They host Aston Villa on Saturday afternoon and for all Villa were flawless at Villa Park until recently, they have only won five out of 12 away games this season, conceding two or more in five games and that statistic has lured me into backing Fulham to score more than 1.5 goals at odds against. Six of Fulham’s seven wins have seen them score twice or more with the only one that didn’t coming against Luton earlier in the campaign and they rare get thrashed. The big reason why I like this bet though is Boubacar Kamara is done for the season now and he is really the only midfield shield for this defence which we know defends high up. Fulham have plenty of pace in their front line and can expose the absence of the Frenchman with a couple of goals.
Moving into the late game and I can’t see anything but a convincing Manchester City win. Chelsea have been very ordinary this season and if you look at their last two away games they have seriously failed to impress. They were an abomination at Liverpool recently and although they won at Crystal Palace on Monday night, for 45 minutes there they absolutely stunk the place out. If they stink the place out for anything like as long here they are going to take an absolute pounding. City are in excellent form at the minute and while it took them a while to break down a deep and stubborn Everton defence last week, I don’t see the Chelsea one being as hard to open up. City scored four at Stamford Bridge earlier in the campaign without Kevin de Bruyne and they could fill their boots here. I’m happy to take City on a -1.5 Asian line.
Player Betting
There are also two player bets which jump out at me this week with the first of them being James Ward-Prowse to score or assist against Nottingham Forest. No team in the Premier League have conceded as many goals from set plays as Nottingham Forest this season and West Ham arrive with the best dead ball kicker in the top flight in their ranks. I would expect to see West Ham revert to type here and look to be solid at the back and rely on set plays so JWP will be crucial either from deliveries from wide areas or direct free-kicks around the box, of which the erratic Forest defenders concede quite a few. Ward-Prowse is also on penalties and plays slightly further forward without Lucas Paqueta around so the 9/5 that he scores or assists, which he did twice in the 3-2 West Ham win over Forest at the London Stadium earlier in the season, and twice in a 4-3 Southampton defeat here last term, looks big to me.
At a bigger price I like Gabriel Magalhaes scores anytime for Arsenal in their game at Burnley. Only Forest have conceded more goals from set plays than Burnley this season and we saw Arsenal look very good from them against West Ham last week. In fact, since they have shoved Declan Rice on taking their set plays they have been much more potent from them. Burnley are weak defensively. Liverpool are ok from set pieces but they were made to look awesome at them last week and the big issue for the Clarets is their keeper looks well out of his depth every time an aerial ball comes into his box. Gabriel scored at West Ham last week and now has four goals in his last seven Premier League matches. His defensive partner William Saliba scored in the reverse fixture between these two, and those who want to back him at 13/1 certainly shouldn’t be put off, but Gabriel has twice the goals of his fellow centre-back so the 7/1 on him scoring here looks well worth taking.
Tips
Back Fulham – Over 1.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.30 with William Hill
Back J.Ward-Prowse to score or assist for a 2/10 stake at 2.80 with William Hill
Back them here:
Back Newcastle United vs AFC Bournemouth – Over 3 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.73 with Bet365
Back Man City (-1.5AH) to beat Chelsea for a 3/10 stake at 2.01 with Bet365
Back Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 with Bet365
