The PGA Tour concludes its stops in Florida this week when the Valspar Championship rounds off the Florida Swing and it will do so with all eyes slowly beginning to turn towards The Masters which is less than a month away.
Taylor Moore was a surprise winner of this tournament a year ago and he returns to Florida looking to keep hold of his title but despite this renewal coming a week after The Players Championship, a decent field is out to stop him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Taylor Moore
2022 – Sam Burns
2021 – Sam Burns
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Paul Casey
2017 – Adam Hadwin
2016 – Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – John Senden
2013 – Kevin Streelman
The Course
The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay is the host venue once again this week. This is one of the toughest par 71s on the PGA Tour, made so difficult by the ‘Snake Pit’, the closing three holes which are among the hardest stretch of holes of the entire season. These holes can ruin many a good round but rarely is there much joy to be had in them. It is as hard a finish as you’ll find so it follows on nicely from the pressure cooker of last week.
The course is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and with the narrow fairways there is going to be quite a premium on accuracy. If you look through the roll of honour it is a list of great putters so there is a clue in that but tee-to-green strength is another feature of what is needed around here. There is not a single bomber on the recent winners list and that tells a tale heading into the tournament. The fairways are tight and the greens are small and very well protected. Look for tee to green machines rather than lights out putters this week.
The Field
There are some really standout names in the field this week and they include the twice former champion Sam Burns who absolutely loves it here. Jordan Spieth is another big name who has got his hands on this trophy who is here while the current winner of The Open is in the field too with Brian Harman teeing it up. Add in Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas to proceedings and you have a field which is pretty stacked at the very top end of it.
In behind those, the likes of Sungjae Im, Cameron Young and Tony Finau are here along with the defending champion Taylor Moore while the European charge is headed up by Sepp Straka and Aaron Rai among others. A few other names who could catch the eye this week include Nick Taylor, Min Woo Lee, Keegan Bradley and Lucas Glover. Daniel Berger is another big name in the field as he looks to get back to where he once was.
Market Leaders
Xander Schauffele went into the final round of The Players Championship last week with a shot lead on the field but he couldn’t get the job done as that final round from Scottie Scheffler proved too much for him to handle. He is 15/2 to put that behind him and win this title and while he is a classy ball striker, he is beginning to get a reputation for being a classy competitor who doesn’t get over the line as readily as he should do. Those players immediately have a red flag around them for me at these kind of prices.
Justin Thomas is the joint second favourite alongside Sam Burns at 14/1. Around here you are almost obliged to like Burns a lot more than Thomas by virtue of the fact he has twice won on this course but he has gone a little quiet for my liking and I would only be taking that price based on his form here rather than anything he has done recently. Thomas is playing better in 2024 than he was in 2023 but he is another who isn’t exactly threatening the winning line at the minute.
Jordan Spieth comes next in the market at 18/1. A missed cut at The Players might not be the worst thing in the world for the 2015 champion but I am still scratching my head as to how a man who leaks the driver way too much for comfort could have won around here. Everything else in the bag is working nicely but you are going to need to find fairways this week and that has been the downfall of Spieth for too long now. I can pass him by.
The Open champion Brian Harman is the only other man in the betting who is shorter than 28/1 on the best prices. He can be taken at 22/1 in places and after a decent spin at TPC Sawgrass last week he arrives at another track which should suit him because he generally hits a lot of fairways and then goes to work with the other parts of his game. He has gone a little quiet since he won The Open in terms of winning opportunities but he might just be coming to the boil so is one to keep an eye on this week.
Main Bets
Keith Mitchell was one of my bets at TPC Sawgrass last week and while he faded over the weekend I feel like I need to back him again because he has got the credentials to go very well around here. You have to hit the ball well on this course and Mitchell sits second on the PGA Tour for ball striking this season, ranking eighth for fairways hit and fifth for greens in regulation. The latter is particularly important with these greens pretty small so finding them is more than half of the test. If Mitchell can get the irons dialled in and the putter is warm then he could get our money back from last week and much more.
Aaron Rai is going to be my other main bet this week. He sits at ninth in the ball striking category on the PGA Tour, sitting at 33 for fairways hit and 12 for greens in regulation. The fairways hit category is probably higher on shorter tracks like this where he doesn’t have to thrash the driver to get around them. He is very good in the long game department but not necessarily great with the putter but these greens are much smaller than usual so even weak putters can win around here, even if the recent winners were anything but weak putters. If there is a negative it is that this is his debut here but I really think this course suits him nicely and so I’ll take the chance he runs well.
Outsiders
There are two other ball strikers that I like a little further down the market. Billy Horschel sits sixth in the ball striking category on the PGA Tour this season, 29 for fairways hit and three for greens in regulation and that should have him in decent shape here. I think it is fair to suggest that his form hasn’t been what someone who has won the biggest titles in the game outside of the majors would expect it to be but he did catch the eye with a top 10 at the Cognizant Classic to open up the Florida Swing and although he missed the cut last week, he wasn’t disgraced by any means. Courses like these are where Horschel can contend and I’ll pay to see if he does it.
Joel Dahmen might not have had the season that he would have wanted so far but he only just missed out on the top 10 at TPC Sawgrass last week and generally when a player goes well there they go well here because the test last week is a wonderful primer for this one. Dahmen was third in ball striking around Sawgrass and you have to hit the ball well to have any chance around there so that certainly bodes well for him here. If there is a weakness in his game at present it is with the putter but I don’t think that is quite the issue it might otherwise be on these small greens. I’ll pay to see if he builds on last week.
Tips
Back K.Mitchell to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Horschel to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back A.Rai to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back J.Dahmen to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
