The third set of Premier League matches in quick succession gets underway on Saturday when seven games take place on a day which looks like painting the picture at the top and the bottom of the table a little further.
This is a typical Saturday in that the action is bookended with TV matches which will see two of the title challengers looking to strengthen their claim for the trophy, with the other games having the updates in the normal places.
Early Kick Off
We begin Saturday in the capital where Crystal Palace welcome the current champions Manchester City to Selhurst Park for a game which is largely all about the visitors. Palace are probably only a win away from securing another season of Premier League football and that will come at some point so this is all about whether Manchester City can move level on points with the leaders Liverpool for 24 hours or so at least. Palace have avoided defeat in half of their last eight matches against the champions so that will give them some confidence heading into the lunchtime game.
3pm Matches
There are five games in the traditional 3pm slot on Saturday afternoon with Aston Villa the highest ranked team on show. They will be looking to consolidate their top four spot when they host a Brentford side who can’t seem to find a win no matter how well they have played in recent times. The other team in the top seven who are on show on Saturday afternoon are West Ham United. They make the trip to Molineux to take on a Wolverhampton Wanderers side who are in the last chance saloon if they have ambitions of European football next season, from seemingly out of nowhere.
Two of the other three matches are going to have a significant impact on the relegation picture. The big game at the bottom of the table sees Everton looking to stave off those behind them when they play host to Burnley at Goodison Park. Luton Town have given an incredible go at staying up this season and they will look to give their survival chances a shot in the arm when they host AFC Bournemouth at Kenilworth Road. Fulham will look to bounce back from their midweek horror show in the other game. They welcome Newcastle United to Craven Cottage.
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Late Game
We conclude on the coast where the attention returns to the title race as Arsenal look to go top of the Premier League again for just under 24 hours at least when they go to the Amex Stadium to take on a Brighton and Hove Albion who have the potential to be very dangerous even if their recent results don’t suggest that will be the case. Arsenal look to be on cruise control at the minute but they have a huge Champions League clash on the horizon while Brighton always play up to the big boys when they are in front of their home fans so this looks like a tasty closer for the day.
Betting
I’ll go with two main bets and a player bet which looks a little on the high side to me. My first main bet is over 3.25 goals in the match between Fulham and Newcastle United. There has been a thought process for a while that Fulham might be on the beach sometime soon and they definitely looked on it at the City Ground in midweek. They were that bad that there has to be a reaction here and to be fair to them in the main they have been decent enough at Craven Cottage this season so I expect them to be a whole lot better than they were in Nottingham. Newcastle away games are crazy at the minute. There have been 57 goals in their road games in 14 matches at an average of 4.07 per game. Six of their last seven away games have had four or more goals and I’m inclined to forget the one which didn’t because it was at Luton the week after Tom Lockyer collapsed and there was all sorts of emotion around that game. Newcastle have Anthony Gordon back for this one but are depleted in defence and whichever way you look at this I only see plenty of goals.
The next bet I like is for there to be over 10.5 corners in the match between Luton Town and AFC Bournemouth at Kenilworth Road. Luton have had a couple of games where the corner count hasn’t been run up but they were in a relatively low block and playing on the counter but they know they have to be on the front foot here and look to win the game. The first thing to note is that every match at Kenilworth Road in 2024 has covered this line and that is no fluke. The smaller aesthetics of the pitch make everything look tighter and teams play with width to try and create some space in the middle. Luton also know that their home form will keep them up and have more of a go at home. Bournemouth are fourth in the Premier League for corners won this season and with Luton much more frequent of them I’ve got to think we’ll go beyond 10 corners in this one. For reference, the reverse meeting had 14 corners so I think this covers.
My player bet comes in the form of Jarred Branthwaite having a shot on target against Burnley. While Burnley are improving both in their play and their results, we continually see that they are so uncomfortable against crosses and especially set plays and that is the strength of this Everton side. They are going to fire plenty of balls into the box. Even free kicks on the halfway line get pumped long by Jordan Pickford so you’ve got to think that someone with the height of Branthwaite will be a threat. He is winning 67% of his aerial duels this season and has put three of the eight shots he has had this term on target. He didn’t play in the reverse fixture but his replacement, Michael Keane, had three shots and two of those were on target including a goal. I wouldn’t put anyone off taking the big prices on the highly-rated defender to score in this game but 17/4 is more than big enough for me to back him to hit the target.
Tips
Back Fulham vs Newcastle United – Over 3.25 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back Luton Town vs AFC Bournemouth – Over 10.5 corners for a 3/10 stake at 1.75 with BetVictor
Back J.Branthwaite – 1+ shots on target for a 1/10 stake at 5.25 with Betway
