The knockout football doesn’t officially begin in the Copa America until Thursday night but we have an effective do or die clash to round off Group B on Sunday when Mexico go up against Ecuador in a key clash in Arizona.
Both these teams go into the match on three points so whoever comes out on top will make it through to what would most likely to a quarter final against Argentina on Thursday night. The loser will be going home earlier than planned.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the Premier Sports 1 channel with the coverage for the contest beginning at 12.50am ahead of the 1am kick off.
Mexico
I would imagine that Mexico would have expected to come out of this group when the draw was made and if that is going to happen then they have to win this match else they will be going home. They have brought a bit of a transitional squad to the tournament with their main focus clearly being on peaking in two years when they co-host the World Cup, but with a lack of competitive football between now and then this represented a chance to whet the appetite of what they might be able to achieve in 2026.
A tame opening win against Jamaica was followed up by a defeat to Venezuela in the second match and that means that if Mexico are going to make the last eight this is a match that they have to win. They might at least solve any doubts that they have in their minds. They have to play to win and not get caught between sticking and twisting if a draw was all they needed. They need a more convincing edge in front of goal if they are going to get that win though.
Special Offer
Sign up for a Boylesports account and bet £10 to get up to £20 in free bets! Perfect offer for the Copa America! Click the image below for this great offer! New accounts only. 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Aware.
Ecuador
When Ecuador went down to 10 men in the opening 20 minutes or so of their first match of the tournament against Venezuela and subsequently fell to defeat, the size of the task in terms of qualifying got much bigger for the South Americans. To their credit though they bounced back without their leading source of goals in the second game to get the better of Jamaica by such a margin that they only need a draw in this outing to book their spot in the knockout stages.
The positive for Ecuador is that they will have Enner Valencia back for this match so if they want to restore him up front they will be able to. They have looked spritely enough going forward though so it isn’t automatic that he gets straight back into the side. Ecuador need to be strong with their approach in this match because although a draw will do them, it is a risky play to play for it so it will be interesting to see how they deal with that.
Betting
I’ve been keen on Ecuador throughout the tournament and I see no reason to desert them now. I highlighted when I did the first Mexico preview for this event that they are looking a little towards the future and it has shown. They were unimpressive against Jamaica in their first game and then lost the second one whereas Ecuador have looked a lot more convincing. They can be excused their opening defeat because the sending off in those conditions was a killer.
Ecuador kicked off in their second match knowing that they had to win it to stay alive in the competition and that is exactly what they did so we know that they can handle the pressure of the situation. We also know that they have got goals in them but it remains to be seen whether the same can be said of Mexico, whose chief attacking threat, Santiago Gimenez, flatters to deceive at this level. If Ecuador can stay tight here I expect them to have enough at the other end of the pitch to get the job done but it is prudent to back them on the draw no bet Asian line given that the South Americans only need a point to progress.
Tips
Back Ecuador (0AH) to beat Mexico for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Bet365
