The first semi-final of Euro 2024 takes place in Munich on Tuesday night as we find out which former winner of the tournament will take their spot in the final when three time champions France take on twice winners Spain.
Spain have been the best team in the tournament so far but they will know that doesn’t count for a whole lot if they don’t win this match and then the final. It has been a grind for France so far but they know how to get it done from here on in.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC1 channel in the UK with the coverage of the contest beginning at 7.30pm ahead of the 8pm kick off.
Spain
They might have arrived at the tournament under the radar but Spain have made their way to the outright favourites to win it after a series of positive performances. I don’t think it is pushing it too far to suggest that they have been the one big nation who haven’t flattered to deceive in the event and that has made them catch the eye and now be the idea for most people of the potential winner from here on in, although they face a tough test here.
There is no doubt that Spain have looked the best team going forward of the four left in the tournament and that certainly bodes well for them but you sense we are going to get three tight matches to finish the event so their success or otherwise from here on in might well be determined by how well they defend. With that in mind, they are not going to be helped by a couple of suspensions in that area of the pitch for this semi-final.
France
France were in the position of being the pre-event favourites in most areas outside of England but a series of dismal displays and sluggish wins have seen them drop to third of four in the market now. They really haven’t got going at all in this tournament and while they have hung tough to make it this far there is a suggestion that they are waiting to be put out of their misery. I’m not convinced that they were as poor as their results earlier in the competition but we are waiting for that real convincing showing from them.
The real surprise for those of us who expected so much from the French in this tournament has been the dismal showings that their attack has put up. They still haven’t scored a goal in open play by one of their players in this competition and surely that has to end here if they are to have any chance in this semi-final. We know they have the defensive qualities, with William Saliba a player of the tournament candidate if France go on and win the thing but it is time for the real Kylian Mbappe and co to show up.
Special Offer
Sign up for a Boylesports account and bet £10 to get up to £20 in free bets! Perfect offer for Euro2024! Click the image below for this great offer! New accounts only. 18+ T&Cs apply. Gamble Aware.
Team News
Spain are going to be forced into three changes from the extra time win over Germany in the quarter final. They are without Dani Carvajal and Robin le Normand with Nacho and Jesus Navas tipped to replace them. Pedri has been ruled out of the tournament and Dani Olmo is in line to start in his place.
France are expected to have Adrien Rabiot back from suspension for this match but who he comes in for hasn’t yet been revealed. Statistics would suggest that France should look at Olivier Giroud as the focal point of the attack but there is no sign of that happening.
Betting
This feels like a tough match to bet on. Everything we’ve seen in the tournament so far would suggest that we should be on Spain but they didn’t get the job done inside the 90 minutes against Germany last time out which doesn’t inspire confidence in them in the match markets here. France haven’t caught fire yet but I do think what we have seen from them defensively makes me think that they will be the ones to come through. I’m going to avoid the match though and focus on a matchup to exploit.
That comes down the French left side where Spain are going to pair up Jesus Navas and Lamine Yamal down that side. One is getting no younger and the other might be too young. Yamal doesn’t do a huge amount of tracking back down that side so France could well have Mbappe and Theo Hernandez descending on a 38-year-old Navas and doubling up on him. It is the left-back who interests me here. He scores one every six Serie A games for AC Milan on average and this is his sixth game of this tournament which helps but I’m not worrying about him scoring. It is the shots market for him which interests me. You can get even money on Hernandez having a shot in this match and 11/2 on that shot being on target and I’m happy to back them both. Hernandez hit the target with a shot against Portugal against a much better right-back in Joao Cancelo and he also hit the target against Poland in the last group game and had a shot which missed the target in the opening game. So that is three times the shot bet has delivered in the five matches he has played and twice the shot on target one has come in. Navas has only played in one game in this tournament and a number of Albania shots came in from his side. These prices feel like good value to me.
Tips
Back T.Hernandez – Over 0.5 shots for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365
Back T.Hernandez – Over 0.5 shots on target for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Betfair
