The quarter finals of the US Open get underway on the Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York on Tuesday when the matches in the bottom half of the draw are played out. By the end of the day we will know two singles semi-final line-ups.
This is the half of the draw which Novak Djokovic and Coco Gauff have exited and so there is an open feel to it with none of the eight men or women on show over the course of the day having won this title in the past so a big day of tennis is in store for us.
Day Session
Paula Badosa vs Emma Navarro
The opening quarter final of the tournament sees the rejuvenated Spanish player Paula Badosa taking on one of the two American women left in the event in the form of Emma Navarro with a spot in a first Grand Slam semi-final the reward for the winner.
Badosa came into the tournament on a really good run on the American hard courts as injuries that have dogged her so much in recent times look to be a thing of the past. She has largely breezed into this quarter final but it should be remembered that she has only met one player in the top 50 in the world rankings so far in New York and that was Taylor Townsend at 48. Nobody flukes their way into a quarter final at this level but you can certainly pick holes in the Badosa form should you wish. Navarro certainly can’t have her form picked apart. She has seen off two top 20 players to make it this far including a rival Coco Gauff who she really should have had beat in two sets rather than the three it needed. I was convinced Navarro would feast on the Gauff weaknesses in that match and backed her accordingly. I think to a slightly lesser extent that the same weaknesses can be exposed within Badosa so I like Navarro here but unlike in the last round her price is fair enough that I can just hope she wins to get one step closer to an outright payout rather than just take a fair price about her.
Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverev
The men’s match in the day session on Tuesday sees two big serving, confident players taking to the court for what has all the hallmarks of a marathon match as the American number one Taylor Fritz takes on Alexander Zverev.
These two men haven’t come through the draw completely unscathed but at the same time they have had enough in hand to be comfortable for the most part but I think they will both accept that things are going to get tougher here. They have recent evidence of that because the two met at Wimbledon recently in a match which went five sets after Fritz came from 2-0 down in sets to win 3-2. That was the second time in three Grand Slam meetings where they had gone the distance and the other one went four sets and I’m expecting nothing different here given how well the two men are playing and the confidence they are exuding right now. Five of the 14 sets they have played in Grand Slams have gone the distance and there was another 7-5 in there and the trend should continue in these quick conditions. The game line for this one is 40.5 which feels low on any four set match which it is hard to believe we won’t get. If it goes the distance like they did at Wimbledon then this should sail over 40.5 games.
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Night Session
Qinwen Zheng vs Aryna Sabalenka
The night session gets underway with a repeat of the Australian Open final from earlier in the year as the Olympic champion Qinwem Zheng meets the Melbourne winner Aryna Sabalenka in what is the standout quarter final in the women’s draw.
As well as that final in Melbourne, these two met here a year ago and Sabalenka won both matches 2-0, dropping just five games on both occasions. Sabalenka has cruised through to this stage and looks every bit the player who won in Cincinnati in the lead up to this tournament. Zheng has been made to work a lot harder having faced deciding sets in three of her four matches and you sense that her string is about to snap. Zheng also has to recover from finishing at a stupid time of the morning in the last round and that is never easy. I feel she is vulnerable on a fast court and while Donna Vekic couldn’t quite finish the job, the power and explosive game of Sabalenka will do. Zheng has to serve lights out just to stay close here I fancy and I’m not expecting that to happen. Sabalenka might be tested a little more than the past two meetings but in these conditions I expect her to have plenty in hand when the match is done.
Grigor Dimitrov vs Frances Tiafoe
The night session match on the men’s side of the draw will see Frances Tiafoe looking to make it into the semi-final for the second time in three years when he goes up against a Grigor Dimitrov who has looked right back to his very best for much of this tournament so far.
Dimitrov was tested in the previous round when Andrey Rublev threw everything at him from two sets down but the Bulgarian got the job done in the deciding set. Tiafoe went to a decider earlier in the event against Ben Shelton and then took down the Canada winner Alexei Popyrin in the last round. That all follows on from the American making the final in Cincinnati in the lead up to this tournament so he is clearly in fantastic nick himself. Dimitrov leads the head to head 3-1 which might give him some confidence here but the New York crowd get right behind Tiafoe and he rises to the atmosphere and the occasion here. I hope he does that again here because he is my outsider bet for this tournament and I’m liking his chances more and more by the day. I’ll ride that outright bet rather than get involved in what looks like potentially being a tight match.
Tips
Back T.Fritz vs A.Zverev – Over 40.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Boylesports
Back it here:
Back A.Sabalenka (-4.5 games) to beat Q.Zheng for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Spreadex
