The UCI Cycling calendar returns with a one day classic – the Clásica San Sebastián on Saturday 30th July. This is a relatively new race and this weekend is only the 36th edition.
Clásica San Sebastián – The Profile
The Clásica San Sebastián is a tough race. The route is 220kms with 6 significant climbs, 5 of which are in the second half of the race.
The key section of the race is usually the run in to the final climb – the Alto de Jaizkibel at the 200km mark. This is a steep climb and is usually decisive in determining who can win the race. There is a 12km descent and a flat run in to the finish.
We might see a small group and a small sprint finish.
I will show the list of recent winners below. As you will see they are the punchers who can climb. Eight of the last twelve races have been won by Spanish riders. This is a race the home riders really target and they are likely to feature heavily on Saturday.
Clásica San Sebastián – Recent Winners
2011 – Philippe Gilbert (BEL) – Omega-Pharma-Lotto
2012 – Luis Leon Sanchez (ESP) – Rabobank
2013 – Tony Gallopin (FRA) – Radioshack-Leopard
2014 – Alejandro Valverde (ESP) – Movistar
2015 – Adam Yates (GBR) – Orica-GreenEDGE
The record number of wins in the race is 3 by Marino Lajaretta. Two riders, Luis Leon Sanchez (2012 & 2012) and Alejandro Valverde (2008 & 2014) could join him on 3 by winning the 2016 race.
Clásica San Sebastián – Contenders
I am going to split this into riders who rode the 2016 Tour de France and those that were rested.
2016 TDF Riders
Race favourite is the aforementioned Alejandro Valverde at 6.00. He has a super record in hilly One Day Classics and he will feature strongly here. The TDF wasn’t his best race – no stage wins. His Movistar team will be trying to control the race. This will give Valverde or possibly team-mate Jon Izaguirre (a 2016 TDF stage winner) a chance to be in contention on the final climb. Izaguirre is much better value at 21.0.
Joint second-favourite is Greg van Avermaet (BMC Racing). He has had a fantastic 2016 season winning One Day Classics, a 2016 TDF stage and holding the Yellow Jersey. The course suits him and he will be a danger to the Spanish riders. I do worry that the accumulation of the length of the climbs might see him suffer on the final climb. You can back him at 9.00 which opens up the EW.
Dan Martin (Etixx) had a strong TDF but did fade some in the final week. Martin too missed out on a stage win in the TDF but the course really suits him in San Sebastián. You can back Martin at odds of 12.0-13.0. If he can get over the final climb in a small group he will be a tough man to beat. Martin is an excellent EW selection.
Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) would be the sentimental choice for success. This is his final season and a lot of cycling fans would love to see him go out with a decent victory. I fear that sentiment will not be enough to carry him to a win. He struggled in the recent TDF and I don’t think he matches up well with some of the other riders in the race this year. Not for me – but a great career.
Defending champion is Adam Yates (Orica) a revelation winning the White Jersey at the TDF and finishing 4th overall. He can be backed at 19.0 – a super EW price. The one question is how much has the TDF taken out of him? I would love to see him do well but I think a top ten would be a solid result.
Jarlinson Pantano (IAM Cycling) always seemed to be in the break in the 3rd week of the TDF. He was super aggressive winning stage 15 and going close on other occasions. He is priced at 19.0, the same as Yates, but I think he struggles here.
Clásica San Sebastián – Contenders
Non-TDF 2016 Riders
This group is led by joint second favourite and one time winner Philippe Gilbert (BMC Racing). He wasn’t in the BMC team for the TDF as his style didn’t fit their overall race victory aims. Gilbert in his pomp was a match for anyone on this type of hilly terrain. The thing is he hasn’t really shown anything close to that form for at least 2 years. I just cannot back him at 9.00.
Tim Wellens (Lotto Soudal) is the sort of rider that could get in a break and make it stick. This has been something of a forte of his and worked well in the Giro d’Italia this year where he won a stage as part of a breakaway. I just can’t see him being explosive enough to win this race though.
Team Sky bring a strong team to the race. It is led by Michal Kwiatkowski, a rider who has won on hilly puncher types of roads in the past. He was signed by the team to win them their first One Day Classic, only for team-mate Wout Pouls to pip him. He is quick enough to win a sprint from a small group. Kwiatkowski will be well rested and I do like his chances at odds of 21.0.
Gianluca Brambilla (Etixx) is a rider I like. He won a stage in the 2016 Giro D’Italia that I tipped him for. He can get over the climbs on this course well but I think he riders in support of Dan Martin. Brambilla might be worth a small EW punt as an outside at 81.0.
TV Coverage
The Clásica San Sebastián will be shown on Eurosport. They are far and away the premier TV station for cycling coverage. I almost cannot fault them except for this race. The TV feed for this race comes from a local source. The last two years they have completely messed up the finale. I hope this doesn’t happen again this year!
Clásica San Sebastián – Tips
Back Dan Martin to win with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 13.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Jon Izaguirre to win with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 21.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Michal Kwiatkowski to win with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 21.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Gianluca Brambilla to win with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet on all four here:
