The 2016 Olympic Games in Rio start on Friday 5th July. The first major cycling event, the Mens Road Race takes place the following day. This will be the 22nd time a Men’s Road Race has been contested as an Olympic event.
Recent Winners
2000 – SYDNEY – Jan Ullrich – Germany
2004 – ATHENS – Paolo Bettini – Italy
2008 – BEIJING – Samuel Sanchez – Spain
2012 – LONDON – Alexandre Vinoukourov – Ukraine
I have only shown the four most recent gold medal winners. As the games are every 4 years, in different countries and climate zones it makes it difficult to look for patterns. This is also a new course that the riders have not competed on.
One thing to remember the riders compete in teams aligned to their nation. This means riders who are team-mates on the UCI calendar now get the chance to compete against each other.
The Route and Profile
The Mens Road Race will take place in and around Rio de Janeiro. The route covers 256.5kms. It starts in Flamengo Park and features two separate circuits.
The Grumari Circuit is taken on four times by the riders. It contains a 1.2km, Grumari climb (7% gradient) plus the 2.1km Grota Funda climb which (4.5% gradient).
There is then a calmer section where the riders follow the coast and head towards the 2nd tougher half of the race.
The second part features the Canoas/Vista Circuit. The circuit starts with Canoas climb then the Vista Chinesa climb over 8.9km uphill. This is followed by a technical descent of 6km.
The Canoas/Vista Circuit has to be completed 3 times. It is likely here that the race will be decided. The punchers, climbers and one day specialists will try to escape from the peloton.
Following the final ascent of the Vista Chinesa there is a 20km descent and run in to the line.
Men’s Road Race – Medal Contenders
As mentioned above I have no history to work with unlike the UCI events I have been writing. So we need to look at the course and the climate.
The course is tough, based on circuits and will suit the punchy riders who can climb. In many respects the course is quite similar to last weekends San Sebastien Clasica.
The climate is unlike anything the riders will have faced in Europe this season. It will be warm and humid. This might suit riders from countries like Columbia.
We are highly unlikely to see a bunch sprint finish on Saturday. There is no way the sprinters would get over the Canoas/Vista Chinesa climbs with the front group. So I can discount the sprinters from my preview.
The Punchers
I think there are 10 riders in serious contention for the Gold Medal.
Alejandro Valverde (Spain) is race favourite at 5.50. He has won so many One Day races with profiles similar to this race. He is Spanish so the heat is less likely to be an issue than with some of his rivals. Valverde is on strong form – another podium in last weekends San Sebastien Clasica. The Spanish have a strong team in support of Valverde and he will be near the front of the race at the end.
Julian Alaphilippe (France) is a rider who has shown magnificent form at time sin the 2016 season. He seems to be an heir apparent to Valverde. Alaphilippe is great on the punchy climbs that feature on this course. He can descend too. If he can escape on the final climb he might be tough to catch. You can back him at 10.0-17.0 which I think holds excellent EW value.
Chris Froome (GBR) is equal 5th favourite going into the race. He is now a three times Tour de France winner and is on excellent form. I really think he has the ability to win races like this on a regular basis. He has the skill set but seems to favour the TDF over the One Day Ardennes Classics that feature similar profiles. There is the caveat with Froome that he is strong favourite for the Individual Time Trial the following Wednesday. I see him saving something for that event and possibly riding for the team here. You can back him at 15.0.
I prefer the chances of Froome’s teammate Adam Yates. He has been the breakthrough rider of 2016, loves this sort of terrain and at 34.0 has super EW value.
Dan Martin (Ireland) is similarly priced to Froome. He is also well suited to the profile of the race. His wins this season have come on this type of climb. There are two doubts in my mind – climate and I think his form seems to have dipped a little. I thought he was in with a real shout of winning the San Sebastien Clasica but he never came close.
Vincenzo Nibali (Italy) is 2nd favourite for Gold at 7.00-9.00. The Italians usually do well at championships and have a strong team. My question with Nibali isone of form. He never really showed his top level at the TDF and I would be stunned if he won here.
Jarlinson Pantano (Columbia) was a revelation of the third week of the TDF. He won a stage was in contention on a couple of other days. The terrain and climate suit plus he has a decent price at 26.0-34.0 for an EW bet. My concern would be that he will be marked more closely now than in the TDF.
Sergio Henao (Columbia) is now free of team-mate domestique duties for Chris Froome. He is an explosive climber suited to course and climate. I think he is overpriced at 34.0-51.0 and is worth a small EW bet.
Bauke Mollema (Netherlands) won the San Sebastien Clasica last Saturday – a mild surprise. However, he was climbing well in the TDf only to slip back in the final two mountain stages.I’m not sure he replicates his San Sebastien success here but has value at 34.0.
Wout Poels (Netherlands) like Henao is free of Team Sky domestique duty. He was probably the second best rider in the Sky team in the third week. He won one of the Ardennes classics earlier in 2016 and is a rider I like a lot. You can back Poels at 21.0-29.0. The climate might be a bit of an issue.
Esteban Chaves (Columbia) had a magnificent Giro d’Italia finishing runner-up to Nibali. He hasn’t raced heavily since so will be well rested for the race. Like Henao he is overpriced at 41.0 – a great EW option.
Olympics – Mens Road Race – Tips
Back Julian Alaphilippe to win Gold with a 1.25/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.00 with Coral.
Bet on Alaphilippe here:
Bet on Adam Yates to win Gold with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 41.00 with Ladbrokes.
Back Yates here:
Back Sergio Henao to win Gold with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.00 with Betfair.
Back Henao here:
Bet on Wout Poels to win Gold with a 1.00/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 29.00 with Boylesports.
Back Poels here:
Back Esteban Chaves to win Gold with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 41.00 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Chaves here:
