The opening event of the new European Tour season is a co-sanctioned event with the Sunshine Tour and is the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa.
After four hard weeks to conclude the previous season the bigger names would be forgiven for not showing up this week but to be fair to Branden Grace, Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen they are all here.
Grace is the defending champion this week having won by seven shots here last year and he’ll be out to pocket some immediate dosh in the new Race to Dubai standings.
Just as it has been since 2005 Leopard Creek Country Club is the venue this week. This course is renowned for its weird and wonderful wildlife. A rhino lives on the property while crocodiles are in lakes on three of the holes so the reward for waywardness this week could be more punishing than some others!
As for the course it is a par 72 which measures out to a yardage of 7,287 so it isn’t particularly long. The rough can be penal and as you can expect the greens are fairly firm by South African standards so the shorter grass is the place to be. The undulating fairways can make distance control tricky.
If we exclude the ‘big 3’ the field this week isn’t the strongest so it might be that this tournament doesn’t take a lot of winning but that might be harsh on the unknown players invited to the event.
Grace is a 4/1 favourite to retain his title with Schwartzel, twice a winner here, 13/2 second favourite. Oosthuizen comes next at 9/1 with Lucas Bjerregaard 20/1. It is 28/1 bar that quartet this week.
I’m going for someone in that 28/1 range this week in the form of the confident South African that is Jaco van Zyl. A couple of times last season we saw the South African bang in contention, most recently in Turkey when he did nothing wrong on his way to a runner up spot behind Victor Dubuisson.
Van Zyl was almost flawless from tee to green that week. He led the driving accuracy and was fifth in greens hit in a much stronger overall field than this one so that is encouraging. He has been third here a couple of years ago but he’s a much better player now and importantly in much better form. He can go well at this price this week.
My second pick is a man who struggled with form last season but hopefully with a new campaign will bring better form and luck and that is on Joost Luiten. The Dutchman began last year on the PGA Tour scene but wasn’t able to crack the code Stateside and is back in Europe on a confidence boosting mission.
At his best Luiten would be half these odds and while his form has dipped his long game generally hasn’t. It has only been putting he’s had an issue with. If he can sort that out, and these greens are ok to putt on, then he’ll be back in contention very soon. In this field I can’t ignore the class of Luiten at this price.
I’m going with a couple of longshots for my final picks and the first is on Dean Burmester. The South African has won a couple of times on the Sunshine Tour this year and has a good all round game. He’ll be bringing confidence to the course this week after a great 2015 and is ready for the next step.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that major breakthrough at this level comes this week. I certainly don’t see him being far away.
My final pick is a wild longshot in Wallie Coetsee. Nobody hits more fairways on the Sunshine Tour than him these days and that is a massive advantage around here. We know he can compete at this level as he followed Andy Sullivan home in the Joburg Open in March.
He drove the ball better than anyone that week and when you think the likes of Sullivan, Byeong-Hun An, David Howell and Thomas Aiken were in that field there is nothing shabby about that effort. If he drives the ball well this week he will certainly outperform his 500/1 odds and who knows how much better he’ll do.
Back J.van Zyl to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
Back J.Luiten to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)
Back D.Burmester to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-5)
Back W.Coetsee to win Alfred Dunhill Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 501.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-5)
Hi Kev, I’d say today was a classic example of the frustration of watching and playing the game and the ultimate frustration of betting on it. Bad luck with your selections. Van Zly tears it up to late, Luiten, coming to the boil, but just a little short at the moment. Nice call on Burmiester, though he had a place in the bag but let it go. I backed Bourdy today. The triple at the par 3 seventh was a real crippler. I think Schwartzel was a worthy winner. Grace was a very poor short priced favorite. Is there any more golf before Christmas?
Yeah slightly frustrating that one for sure. Deserved more out of the week than I got but these weeks come along from time to time as a golf punter.
3 tournaments next week – Nedbank, Australian PGA and Tiger’s event and then that’s it for 2015. Hopefully I can go out on a high.
Thanks Kev. Good luck with with your last shot for the year