It is do or die for Sri Lanka as far as their Asia Cup title defence is concerned on Tuesday when they host the runaway favourites India in the latest huge clash in the tournament.
India have played two matches in the event to date and have won them both and with a match with the UAE to come their place in the final is no longer in any doubt you would think but Sri Lanka’s defeat to Bangladesh last time out has left their hopes hanging by a thread.
It is still possible for Sri Lanka to make the final even were they to lose this match but their destiny would be out of their own hands and nobody wants that this relatively early in the campaign.
India haven’t always been convincing in this tournament. They were in early trouble against Bangladesh and survived a huge moment when Rohit Sharma was dropped and never looked back and they made a bit of a meal of chasing a low total against Pakistan but you can’t argue with two wins from two.
Shikhar Dhawan missed the Pakistan game but he has recovered enough to play in this match so India’s batting line up looks back to full strength which is important. They are unlikely to rotate a bowling attack which just skittled Pakistan so Dhawan is likely to be the only change unless something happens to MS Dhoni that rules him out late on.
Sri Lanka just about got over the line against the UAE but they were never in the match against Bangladesh at any stage. Their batting has been really poor in this tournament. Their top order can’t get them going and their middle order has been left exposed which isn’t good. I’m not convinced they know their best batting order which is never good.
Lasith Malinga looks set to miss this match which is a huge blow. Thisara Perera never really offered much in his absence against Bangladesh but options are thin on the ground so the powerful all-rounder might get another chance. The likes of Dilshan and Mathews really need to step up.
There is talk that the wicket in Dhaka has a bit of extra grass on it which will make this match interesting because the last time they met on a green top India were blown away by the Sri Lanka attack. It will be interesting to see how the game plays out if the wicket is green at the toss.
These two nations have met nine times in this format of the game and India lead 5-4. Sri Lanka won the biggest match between the two when they won the World T20 against India two years ago but it is MS Dhoni’s men who have won the last two meetings.
I think India will win this one too but I can’t be backing them at such a short price especially if this is going to be played on a green wicket so my bet for this match will come in one of the side markets again.
That is the runs line for Virat Kohli. Kohli just loves playing against Sri Lanka. In two T20 international knocks against them he has scores off 77 and 68 and in ODIs six of his 25 centuries have come against Sri Lanka and quite often that is a Sri Lanka attack which contains Lasith Malinga.
If he doesn’t play here, and he isn’t expected to, then Kohli’s task of covering a 23.5 line becomes that much easier. He showed all of his class against Pakistan when he got through one of the best spells of bowling you’ll see from Mohammad Amir to score a match winning 49.
Only three times in his last 16 T20 international innings has Kohli not covered a 23.5 run line and on one of the occasions he didn’t he hit 23 exactly. History shows that he’ll cover this more than 80% of the time and I’m happy to take him to cover it here.
WON – Back V.Kohli Over 23.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Betway
