The final of the BNP Paribas Open takes place on Sunday as the ATP Indian Wells tournament draws to a close where once again we have two surprise finalists competing for the opening Masters 1000 title of the season.
This tournament has thrown up surprise winners and finalists in the past and when you consider we have neither finalist inside the top 10 in the world rankings that has been the case again as Holger Rune and Jack Draper face off for the first of the Sunshine Slam titles.
Holger Rune
I think it is fair to say that the biggest surprise of all this week has been the resurgence of Holger Rune. There is no doubt that he has always had the talent to do big things in the sport and we saw it a couple of years ago when he bounced onto the scene and went on to win the Paris Masters at this level but the last 12-18 months or so it had looked like he was losing his way. That makes this week a very welcome return to form for one of the most entertaining players to watch on the circuit.
Rune has certainly earned his place in this final. He has seen off competent players in the form of Ugo Humbert, Stefanos Tsitsipas and then in the semi-final he took care of Daniil Medvedev having also beaten Tallon Griekspoor along the way too so Rune is clearly playing well. He had to be very patient in some long rallies against Medvedev and the fact he was able to come out on top in a number of those bodes well for his chances.
Jack Draper
This has been the best week in the life of Jack Draper from a tennis point of view so far. He came into the tournament as a player who if everything fell into line and he played well who could win the competition but the general consensus was that his better form and results would come on a faster court than this. He has defied that though with a series of good performances where he has had his character and his fitness tested and deservedly takes his place in this final.
The draw hasn’t really opened up for Draper either. He has had to see off the second and third seeds this week in Taylor Fritz and Carlos Alcaraz, both previous winners around here and very comfortable in these surroundings, while other victims include Joao Fonseca and Ben Shelton. Even Jenson Brooksby was no walk in the park so Draper has done well to reach his first Masters 1000 crown and will be looking to apply the finishing touches to a perfect week now.
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Head-to-head
These two men have only met once in the past which was a meeting in Cincinnati last season where Holger Rune ran out a surprisingly comfortable winner in straight sets. That was on a much faster court than they will meet on here and much earlier in the tournament too with that being a quarter final but it is recent enough to feel relevant. This is their first match in a final against each other which might make a different to the dynamic of things.
Betting
This should be a great final because both of these players have performed really well this week and pretty much cleaned up all of the major names along the way. Between them they have seen off Carlos Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas so they are clearly in good order and should be ready to lay down a huge challenge for the second biggest title of the season so far. I’m a little surprised that Jack Draper is quite the strong favourite that he is though.
Holger Rune won that previous meeting and he has more experience at this level of bog events than Draper. There is no doubt that Draper will win events of this magnitude and will probably win multiple Masters 1000 tournaments but he might need to taste a final before he wins one. I thought Rune was the better of the two in the semi-final and if anything he is getting better by the match. I’m not really sure how to judge the Draper semi-final because Carlos Alcaraz was terrible in the first set then he won the second set 6-0 before Draper responded. It feels to me like Rune has the better form in the latter part of this tournament and the experience on his side and at the prices I’m willing to take him to win this one.
Tips
Back H.Rune to beat J.Draper for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with William Hill
Back him here:
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