Hot on the heels of the first part of the Sunshine double in the tennis world comes the second leg when the ATP Miami Open begins on Wednesday with 96 players once again lining up looking to take down a Masters 1000 tournament.
Carlos Alcaraz won this tournament a year ago in what was his breakthrough in the big time. He returns looking to make a successful defence of the title which would land him the Sunshine double, the first time a player has won both events since Roger Federer in 2017.
Recent Winners
2022 – Carlos Alcaraz
2021 – Hubert Hurkacz
2019 – Roger Federer
2018 – John Isner
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Andy Murray
2012 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
We have the usual size Masters 1000 event field for this tournament. 96 players will be in the field once qualifying has concluded with the 32 seeds straight into the second round. Qualifiers and those ranked outside the top 32 play in the first round to join them there. The draw has been completed already and the tournament is a straight knockout with every match over the best of three sets. There is a tiebreak in the final set should it reach 6-6. The champion is crowned on the second Sunday of the competition.
Top Quarter
Carlos Alcaraz returned to number one in the world rankings when he won in Indian Wells on Sunday and the defending champion is the top seed in the draw as a result of that. If the draw goes to the seeding then the Spaniard will face Holger Rune in the quarter final but there are six seeds looking to stop that from happening. They are Diego Schwartzman, Denis Shapovalov, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Maxime Cressy.
There are always household names among the unseeded players in a Masters 1000 quarter. The pick of those in the top quarter is the former champion Andy Murray while home ace Brandon Nakashima will look to make an impression. John Isner is another former champion who is in the draw at the Hard Rock Stadium with further British interest coming in the form of Kyle Edmund. Marton Fucsovics had a good week in Indian Wells and will want another one here.
Second Quarter
Casper Ruud was a win away from landing the title a year ago and he’ll begin his quest to go one better from the second quarter. The Norwegian hasn’t started 2023 particularly well though so that will keep the rest of the seeds in this section interested. The next highest seed is Andrey Rublev who isn’t exactly bulletproof either. That will certainly catch the eye of the other six seeds who are Miomir Kecmanovic, Grigor Dimitrov, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Roberto Bautista Agut and Botic van de Zandschulp.
Once again there are household names waiting to take on the seeded players in this section. Gael Monfils is probably the most recognisable of them but Ugo Humbert enjoyed a positive week in Indian Wells and will look to back that up here. Alexander Bublik and J.J. Wolf should enjoy the quicker conditions here in Miami while Fabio Fognini will look to roll back the years. Taro Daniel and Alexei Popyrin can also do some damage.
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Third Quarter
The third quarter is an interesting one this week as it has the Indian Wells finalist Daniil Medvedev headlining it. He made no secret at all of the fact he hated conditions in the desert but he should look forward to what is below him more in Miami. One man who definitely does is the 2021 winner Hubert Hurkacz who is the second highest seed in the quarter. Those two are due to meet in the last eight but out to stop that from happening are Yoshihito Nishioka, Matteo Berrettini, Alex de Minaur, Cameron Norrie, Borna Coric and Ben Shelton.
We are not short of players who aren’t seeded in this quarter of the draw. Adrian Mannarino had a couple of good wins in Indian Wells last week and will hope to follow that up with more this week. Home players Denis Kudla and Mackenzie McDonald will look to use the home crowds and conditions to their advantage while Quentin Halys and Alex Molcan will look to showcase their talents in an open section.
Bottom Quarter
Stefanos Tsitsipas exited Indian Wells about as quickly as he arrived last week and he’ll be hoping to be in Miami for a lot longer. He is the top seed in the bottom quarter of the draw and is seeded to meet Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter final. The Canadian ran into Carlos Alcaraz at the wrong time last week and will hope to go deeper from the other half to the Spaniard here. The other seeds in this quarter are Francisco Cerundolo, Dan Evans, Frances Tiafoe, Karen Khachanov, Lorenzo Musetti and Sebastian Baez.
We still have the qualifiers and the lucky losers to be placed into the draw but two unseeded players who we will definitely see in this quarter are Richard Gasquet and the former US Open champion Dominic Thiem who is looking to get back to where he once was in the game. Lorenzo Sonego is very good on his day while the home player Marcos Giron will look to make the most of the conditions this week. Jason Kubler and Jiri Lehecka are ones to keep an eye on.
Betting
I’ll go with an outright bet in each half of the draw this week. In an ideal world we wouldn’t be taking Carlos Alcaraz on but the Sunshine double is so rare I’ll side with history and take the man the Spaniard beat in the semi-final in Indian Wells in Jannik Sinner. There was a lot to like about the way Sinner was hitting the ball last week and he just ran into the best player in the world at the peak of his form. That is three finals in three tournaments for Alcaraz so you would imagine he will feel the pace eventually and it might be that someone can use the quicker conditions here to outslug him. If anyone is going to do that I think Sinner might well be the man. He has dropped in the ideal quarter with Casper Ruud yet to get going in 2023 and Andrey Rublev as up and down as a yoyo. I expect Sinner to come through his quarter and if nobody else has seen off Alcaraz I’ll take him to do the job before winning the final.
In the bottom half of the draw I’m going to maintain my interest in Karen Khachanov who I’m convinced has a big tournament in him at some point. He showed at the Australian Open that these conditions are to his liking and he has also landed in a great part of the draw with Stefanos Tsitsipas having done little of note since losing to Djokovic in the final in Melbourne and Felix Auger-Aliassime who is completely unreliable being the main seeds in his quarter. Khachanov looks to have a smooth early run and that is where his early exit in Indian Wells could be to his advantage. The Russian keeps going into these events overpriced so I’ll have a small bet on him to see if this is his week.
Tips
Back J.Sinner to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 12.00 with Bet365 (1/2 1-2)
Back K.Khachanov to win ATP Miami Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfair (1/2 1-2)
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