It is semi-final day at the ATP Miami Open on Friday with both of the matches taking place across two sessions of action at the Hard Rock Stadium in Florida as we go about finding out which two men will compete in the final of the second Masters 1000 event of the season.
This tournament often throws up a surprise semi-finalist and we certainly have that here and we also have three much more seasoned campaigners looking to book a spot in another Masters 1000 final so we’re all set up for a decent day.
Day Session
Novak Djokovic vs Grigor Dimitrov
The opening semi-final of the tournament pits two men who are no strangers to going deep in a Masters 1000 event against each other as Novak Djokovic, the huge favourite to add to his already full trophy cabinet, meets Grigor Dimitrov.
I guess we should get the head-to-head record out of the way first. Djokovic leads that 12-1 and he is 8-0 on a hard court so that already highlights the size of the Dimitrov task here. The good news for the Bulgarian is that they haven’t met since 2023 and Djokovic isn’t the player he was back then but Dimitrov isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. The big question is what the popular Bulgarian has to offer physically here because he was out on his feet to the point there were fears he was going to collapse after his quarter final epic victory against Francisco Cerundolo. To balance that out a touch, Djokovic has to play successive days after his quarter final was shifted to Thursday but he cruised through so I don’t see that being a huge problem. I expect a Djokovic win here. Of the 12 matches he has beaten Dimitrov in eight have been in straight sets and that is the angle I’m expecting here too given the physical state of the Bulgarian at the end of his quarter final but bookmakers are all over that so to give us more chances of winning it might be shrewder to play under 22.5 games rather than a handicap as that brings scores such as 76 63 or 75 64 in our favour which you would lose backing Djokovic on the 4.5 game cap which is where the line will drift to by the time this starts. I’d be surprised if there is much left for Dimitrov to give and even with a tight first set before his tank empties completely there is enough room for the under to land.
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Night Session
Jakub Mensik vs Taylor Fritz
It is a huge night for the two men involved in the second semi-final on Friday evening when the young Czech star Jakub Mensik will walk out onto court for the biggest match of his career when he faces the sole American remaining in the draw in Taylor Fritz.
These two have had very different second weeks of the competition. Mensik has only played one match since Monday and that was against an opponent in Arthur Fils whose petrol tank was running near to empty at the beginning of that contest and the Frenchman couldn’t stop for a refill. Fritz has been much more active and has had to ride a huge battle against Matteo Berrettini in the last eight. In terms of the rally lengths and things that match wasn’t as physically demanding as some we have seen this week but he was still on court for 2hr46 and you never completely know how well someone will back up in these conditions. All things being equal I think the experience and class of Fritz will come through but that quarter final length does muddy the waters a little bit and maybe suggests that Mensik could keep this closer than expected. I can’t find an angle I’m completely sold on so I’ll give the second semi a watching brief.
Tips
Back N.Djokovic vs G.Dimitrov – Under 22.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Boylesports
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