After the excitement and the intensity of The Players Championship last week the PGA Tour drops down a couple of notches this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic from Texas.
With a decent field in Ireland this week and a number of top players taking the week off from competitive action after a mentally draining run around TPC Sawgrass it is hard to describe the field this week as anything better than modest. One man who does tee it up is the defending champion Steven Bowditch.
Recent Winners
2015 – Steven Bowditch
2014 – Brendon Todd
2013 – Sang-moon Bae
2012 – Jason Dufner
2011 – Keegan Bradley
2010 – Jason Day
2009 – Rory Sabbatini
2008 – Adam Scott
2007 –Scott Verplank
2006 – Brett Wetterich
The Course
One of the reasons why the field is so weak this week is the course. The elite players aren’t a fan of TPC Four Seasons and it is hard to go against them on that. We saw why last year when rain decimated the course so much that one of the holes had to be reduced from a 406 yard par 4 to a 104 yard par 3 which turned the event into a bit of a farce.
Unfortunately rain is scheduled early this week so there could be a fair bit of backing up going on early in the week and a lot of golf to be played over the weekend and no star name likes that at this time of the year with the next major starting to loom large on the horizon.
As for the course, at full length it is a par 70 which measures 7,106 yards so it isn’t especially long but with the rain around it is likely to play fairly long. We don’t really have many reliable statistics to go on this week but looking at the former winners of this event I’m favouring ball strikers over bombers.
The Field
There is a lack of big names around this week but there is one very big name in the field and that is the Texas native Jordan Spieth who will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing missed cut last week.
Dustin Johnson is the only other top 10 player in the field but there are recognisable players in the form of Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia and the recent winner in San Antonio, Charley Hoffman not to mention major champions Charl Schwartzel, Zach Johnson and Louis Oosthuizen.
Market Leaders
Jordan Spieth is a very warm favourite this week. He is a best price of 8/1 but he is generally a lot shorter than that in most places. You have to take quite a leap of faith that Spieth is playing his best stuff after blowing The Masters and missing the cut last week in his last two events. If he is at 85% or better he should be too good for this field.
Dustin Johnson is no bigger than 9/1 to win here and I guess the softening of the course will suit him but even so I can’t be backing someone with such a wretched short game at a single figure price so I will leave that one alone too.
Matt Kuchar is the third favourite at 20/1 with Charley Hoffman and Sergio Garcia 25/1 on the best prices. Charl Schwartzel and Zach Johnson are both 28/1 for each way purposes and it is 30/1 and bigger the rest of the field.
Main Bets
This isn’t a tournament that I’m going too deep in. The other event this week is much bigger and should be much more reliable from a betting point of view especially with this one having the potential to turn into a lottery with the weather. Given the weather situation I’m looking for fast starters in case we do lose holes.
My first main bet is a man who won for me as recently as last month. Charley Hoffman won the Valero Texas Open and followed that up with a decent run in the Zurich Classic which turned into a bit of a farce so he’s clearly in good touch even allowing for his missed cut last week.
Hoffman hits the ball nicely and is hitting it well at the minute and I think now that he has the monkey off his back and that win has had time to settle in he will go close again in the weeks to come. He has a decent record here with four top 10s including a runner-up finish 12 months ago and given that we know he’s playing equally as well this week he’s my main pick here.
I’m often a sucker for a home game player and that is the case this week too as I’m going with Danny Lee. It isn’t just the fact he is at home that I like. I like the way he is playing right now. When everyone was suffering the carnage of Sawgrass on Saturday he quietly went about his business and shot level par which said much for his play into the greens and on and around them and that can serve him well here.
Prior to that encouraging effort last week, Lee had gone well in the Wells Fargo so he’s coming into some nice form at just the right time for an event on a course he knows like the back of his hand. Never underestimate the advantage of sleeping in your own bed and I’ll pay to see how much of a positive the Korean born man can turn that into.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple of punts on two mid-range players who have been catching my eye recently in the hope they get in the mix and are able to stay there and deliver some sort of return.
The first of those is Colt Knost, a man who has been pretty popular with the media this week after his excellent outing at TPC Sawgrass last week. If Knost can play well and hold his nerve when deep enough in contention around there he should be able to do it anywhere so maybe last week was a defining one in the American’s career.
Knost is a decent enough player from tee to green, he is third in fairways hit this year and he also sits inside the top 20 in putting and scrambling on the tour. Those three things should serve him well so when you add his good form into the mix he has every chance of running well.
Jonas Blixt is another man who seems to like it here. He has teed it up twice in this tournament and made the cut on both occasions, finishing as high as third in 2012 so that is very encouraging, as is his first 36 holes at Sawgrass last week where he was actually good enough to be in the final group in the third round.
He came a cropper on those greens that day but he won’t be experiencing anything like that sort of thing here which is a positive. He has a couple of top 10s on the Tour this year and like most Swede’s he has a wonderful short game which can serve him well. Off the back of a good outing last week I’ll chance him here.
Tips
Back C.Hoffman to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back D.Lee to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back C.Knost to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Blixt to win AT&T Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
