A lot has changed over the course of 2020 but thankfully one tradition which has remained is the Boxing Day Test match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground where this year it is India who are the visitors to take on Australia on the showpiece occasion.
India will be needing to bounce back as well having surrendered a strong advantage in the first Test if they are to level the series up. Australia head to the MCG knowing that after turning the opening match around they can secure a share of the series if they win here.
Australia
There were bits of the first Test which Australia will not have been pleased with but from the position they were in heading into the third day of action, they will be delighted that they came away with the win. They will know that they got away with one in the end although to be fair to them it was the quality they have with the ball that turned things around and there is nothing fortunate about that.
If there is significant room for improvement then it comes with the bat where their top order failed to show up in the opening game. Some of it was down to batting under lights but to be fair to them it was an issue going into the series and there was so much negative talk about it that they were almost talked into failure. Thankfully a couple of experienced players stood up and made them competitive with the bat but the job could be made a lot easier if that top order could fire.
India
This is going to be as much a mental test for India as it is a physical one after the way in which the last Test ended for them. To be fair to them the last three matches of this series were going to be a significant test anyway with the news that Virat Kohli was going to head home for the birth of his child but for him to leave them 1-0 down in the series from what was looking like an unassailable position in Adelaide will be even tougher to take.
You get the feeling this series could go one of two ways now. India will either use the disappointment of Adelaide to fire themselves up for what is to come for the remainder of it or that angst will offer a hangover which they are unable to shake off and they get tamely beaten. One thing is for sure is someone is going to have to step up with the bat in the absence of Kohli if they are going to have any chance of getting anything out of the series.
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Team News
Australia have already confirmed that their side will be unchanged for this Boxing Day Test match after Dave Warner is forced to miss out having left the quarantined bubble for treatment on an injury recently.
India will be forced into two changes but could make a lot more than that. Virat Kohli and Mohammed Shami will take no further part in the series. KL Rahul would be the leading runner for the Kohli slot while one of Navdeep Saini or Mohammed Siraj will replace Shami. Prithvi Shaw could be a dead man walking at the top of the order with Shubman Gill potentially a technically better option there.
Betting
I’ll take a couple of bets over the course of this Test match with the first of them being the one which won for me in the opening match of the series. That is the performance of Tim Paine. The line for the first Test was 87.5 points and given that he covered it comfortably with a total of 143pts it is no surprise that the target for this match has gone up slightly. In saying that it hasn’t gone up hugely and is still perfectly attainable at 95.5. His 73 in the first Test pretty much had his total near enough covered but he actually took seven matches in the match. If he takes anywhere close to that in this match then he should get enough with the bat to get this covered. Nathan Lyon will be more in the match here too so a stumping can’t be ruled out. I like the over on this line.
I also like the over on the wickets line for Pat Cummins in the match at 4.5. Admittedly it is a tough ask to ask a player to take 25% of the maximum amount of wickets to fall but I’m still not convinced that this line is high enough. I say that for a couple of reasons. He took seven wickets in the opening match in Adelaide and in his three matches here he has taken four, nine and five wickets. The four only saw him get one innings with the ball so you would have to think in a second bowling effort he would have covered the 4.5 line there. That was in 2017 and I think it is fair to say that Cummins is a better bowler now. I think there is a good chance he gets five or more wickets here.
Tips
Back T.Paine’s Performance – Over 95.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
Back him here:
Back P.Cummins – Over 4.5 wickets for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
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