The destiny of the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy has already been determined but despite that Australia and New Zealand meet for the third and final time in Cairns on Sunday in a match which now has little on it other than it being the last ODI in the career of Aaron Finch.
There are 10 World Cup qualifying points on this match as well but neither of these two teams need them so this one is all about New Zealand avoiding the whitewash and Finch signing off on his ODI career.
Australia
Australia are 2-0 up in the series but I’m sure they will admit they haven’t had their best stuff with them. If you include the Zimbabwe series as well then Australia haven’t batted well for any of the five ODIs they have played over the last couple of weeks. They have had contributions from lower down the order in a lot of the matches and that has got them to totals which have been winning ones with the exception of one but I’m sure they’d like to go out with a convincing display.
The positive for Australia throughout both this series and they one they played against Zimbabwe is that their bowlers have relished and performed in the conditions. They have rotated their attack at times and still got the job done so that will give them a lot of confidence moving forward. The key for Australia will be that whichever bowlers they select for this match don’t lose their intensity else for the second series in succession they might slip up in the final game.
New Zealand
I don’t think there is any getting away from the fact that New Zealand will be horrified to be 2-0 down in this series. In the opening game they had Australia on toast but couldn’t put them away and then in the second one they restricted their hosts to a score less than 200 which even on a tricky wicket they will have felt they could chase down but they never even scared it. They have one last chance to get it right and come away with something to show for their efforts.
In many ways you hope for their bowlers that New Zealand can find a win here. They have done their job in both the matches apart from one partnership in the opening game but they have had no support from the batters. They haven’t even had the contribution from those in the middle and lower order to get them out of trouble so there needs to be a whole round big improvement for the tourists if they are to leave with a win.
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Team News
Aaron Finch will be playing the final match of his ODI career but he won’t be doing it alongside David Warner or Marcus Stoinis as both have been released from the squad for this match. Josh Inglis is yet to play in this series so he might replace Warner while Cameron Green looks likely to replace Stoinis. Nathan Ellis has been called up too and he might offer Mitchell Starc a rest.
Kane Williamson has been backed by New Zealand coach Gary Stead as the man to continue leading the side but he needs a score to keep the dogs at bay. Glenn Phillips and Ben Sears haven’t seen any time in the series and that might be rectified here.
Betting
I’ve got a feeling that now Australia know this is Aaron Finch’s last game that he’ll find a score and his teammates will support him so I wouldn’t want to take the home side on this game but they are pretty short to back. There is a way in for me in this one though and it comes via exploiting the New Zealand batting which just hasn’t looked good at all in this series and unlike Australia, if the Kiwi top order fails there isn’t really much depth to get the tourists out of trouble.
So far in the series New Zealand have hit 19 and six boundaries in the two matches so the 21.5 boundaries line which has been priced up looks on the high side to me. I don’t expect the Kiwis to be skittled for 82 again but at the same time I don’t see them going much bigger than what they got in the opening game as conditions aren’t getting any better to bat in this series. There are no signs of anyone coming into form for New Zealand and although they have Finn Allen and Glenn Phillips to come in the Australia bowlers look in great form and can keep the tourists below 21.5 boundaries.
Tips
Back New Zealand – Under 21.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
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