After a few weeks off of our fantasy previews to concentrate on our Olympics coverage it is time to return to the world of fantasy golf and what better time to return than for the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs – The Barclays. There are some fantastic value games on DraftKings this week with some decent prizes up for grabs. Here are our tips to hopefully help you beat the field.
Profile
Bethpage Black is a wonderful golf course to stage a tournament of this kind. It is set up like a major golf course where scoring will be difficult if you lose control of the golf ball and par is a good score even if you maintain control.
Form is important whether betting on the tournament or playing fantasy but we like to use the odd stat to help us with our picks and the stats we like this week are:
- Total Driving
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained Putting
Star Men
This is for those players who cost $8000 or more. With this being a field stacked with big names there are plenty of these players this week.
MAIN PICK – Henrik Stenson $11,700
Sometimes you have to ignore annual stats and just go with what your eyes tell you and that is that Henrik Stenson is playing great golf right now. This isn’t a golf course you have to bang it 300+ yards off the tee so Stenson will be able to get that trusted two-wood out and give it a crack and he is a major player on those type of courses. Stenson is hot right now. He won The Open, tied for seventh in the USPGA and only lost the Olympic gold medal on the final hole. He’s a big price but he’s that for a reason.
PICK – Adam Scott $9,500
Hasn’t missed a cut all season so that immediately attracts our attention and on the tougher courses he tends to stand out from the crowd. He isn’t in the sort of form that he was in at the beginning of the season but with five top 20 finishes in his last seven starts he is certainly not out of form by any means. The time for the big players to come out is now and we expect Scott to do just that.
PICK – Brandt Snedeker $8,900
Quite cheap given the form he is in. He has had top five finishes in two of his last three starts with over 100pts on his ledger on both occasions. Hasn’t been consistent this season hence why he doesn’t rank high on all the stats but we know he’s a great putter and he’s solid from tee to green. 2nd here in 2012 is a bonus too.
AVOID – Matt Kuchar $9,200
Beware the injured (or ill) golfer? Maybe but Kuch pulled out of the pro-am on the eve of the tournament citing illness that when we’re having to fork out a chunk of dough the last thing we need is an unwell player. We know he’s buzzing from his bronze medal in Rio but that illness and the potential for the course to be too long is enough for us to swerve Kuch this week.
AVOID – Si Woo Kim $8,400
I’m often a fader of winners the following week especially first time winners and I’m more than happy to swerve the Korean this week. He tends to deliver his best golf on the easier layouts where the scoring is low. That isn’t this week and if the celebrations of the weekend equate to a slow start the trap door might be too much to avoid after 36 holes. He’s not for us.
AVOID – Jimmy Walker $8,200
From nowhere he landed the USPGA not too far from here at Baltusrol but that appears to be the anomaly in a pretty poor season for Walker. It did mean he has no Ryder Cup hopes and the pressure is off but that might not be a good thing for those of us looking for every point. At this sort of price there are better options.
Mid-Range Players
This is for those players who cost between $6600 and $8000. There are plenty of them too and here are our favourites and those who we don’t like.
PICK – Paul Casey $7,800
This is a tee to green, ball strikers course and not many have struck it better than the Englishman this season. He is 11th on Tour for total driving and 13th for greens in regulation so if he can find a hot streak with the putter he should deliver a good score. Top 20 finishes in three of his last four tournaments are encouraging too so he might nab some bonus points to go along with his scoring ones.
PICK – Keegan Bradley $7,600
Not my usual cup of tea but the stats don’t lie as they say. He leads the Tour in total driving in 2016 and sits in the top 15 for greens in regulation so he’ll get plenty of scoring chances. The putter has been cold for much of the year but he has still scored 60pts in five of his last six tournaments and with the tee to green necessity likely to generate plenty of strugglers his scoring can be among the higher list this week.
PICK – Russell Knox $7,300
Genuinely one of the best scorers on tour, largely assisted by his ranking of second in greens in regulation on Tour. He has a good short game too so if he keeps the ball in play he’ll be contending throughout. His first appearance since winning the Travelers at the beginning of the month and this confident scorer should bank plenty more points this week.
PICK – Billy Horschel $6,700
I’m sure Horschel would be the first to admit 2016 hasn’t yielded the results he would have liked but there were signs last week that the big form is coming. He finished fifth at the Wyndham with a huge 106 fantasy points and it is this time of year that he comes to the boil. He cleaned up in the FedEx Cup playoffs two years ago and positive vibes can only be a good thing.
PICK – Jason Dufner $6,600
There are always doubts about the putting of Dufner but one thing that is never in doubt is his ball striking and this should be an ideal course for him in terms of setting up good scoring opportunities. If he could putt he would cost another $3k but his tee to green game will give him such an advantage on the field that at this price we’re happy to get involved.
PICK – Lucas Glover $6,600
The perfect man statistically. Fifth in total driving and leader on Tour in greens in regulation. Putting is a concern of his but we know he can handle these greens as he tamed this course when it was set up at its toughest when landing the US Open in 2009. If he can get that roll on the greens back this week another big run on this course is well within him.
AVOID – Gary Woodland $7,500
This is a lot of money to pay for a guy with just one top 10 finish all season. Admittedly he’s only missed four cuts but three of them have come in his last six picks. His length is often his strength but it is negated around here so Woodland isn’t for us this week.
AVOID – Tony Finau $7,000
Weeks where he doesn’t make double figured numbers of bogeys are rare and on this track you would think he will make more. Only three par 5s goes against him as does the layout so while we like big Tony we can’t be with him this week.
AVOID – Kyle Stanley $6,700
Two solid weeks have got him in here but the pressure is really on now. He said he discovered a putting stroke last week which could serve him well here but he isn’t the best putter and the fact he needed to perform last week just to make it in here doesn’t inspire us. A bit cheaper and we might leave it but at this price we have to flag him as one to avoid.
Bottom End Players
This group is those players who are ranked $6,500 and less and there are still a few of them despite the stacked potential of this field.
PICK – Kevin Kisner $6,400
KK will be popular this week but if you are running out of cash and want some big points he is very much your man. Top 20s in the last two outings and a putting stroke that is coming into form makes us think that he is back to the early season form which sees him going into these playoffs almost guaranteed to be in the finale. Very likely to score much better than we’d expect someone at this price to score.
PICK – William McGirt $6,100
Another man who is a cheap price. You don’t win Jack’s event without a good all-round game and that is as good an indication as you’re going to get about the quality of the American. Isn’t likely to plough the birdies in but this isn’t that sort of track anyway. Values par and at this price that’s enough for us.
PICK – Robert Garrigus $5,700
Quite possible the best value for money pick of the entire week. 90pts or more in his last three tournaments with 17 or more birdies in each of them too. He’s 10th in greens in regulation on the PGA Tour and with his putter seemingly working at the minute he can certainly deliver a points total much higher than we’d expect of someone at this price.
AVOID – Jon Curran $6,000
Not really been a factor since he was the runner up in The Memorial. Here largely off the back of that run and nothing statistically says he is about to change his form. Six grand isn’t the most expensive price but there are others that offer much better value and much higher scoring potential around the same price.
AVOID – Harold Varner III $5,900
There’s definitely talent in this kid but there is plenty of erratic play too and you can’t afford that sort of style around here so he isn’t for us. The threat of a missed cut is just too strong for us to be able to consider HV3.
AVOID – Luke List $5,900
Like many of the new breed of golfer List likes the courses where he can get the driver out and send it miles with freedom and that isn’t Bethpage. His performances recently reflect that and we can’t take the chance of a missed cut even at this price. He’s an easy swerve this week.
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