The upcoming international break ensures we have as many as eight matches in the Premier League on Saturday with two televised matches and a rare six matches kicking off at the traditional 3pm slot.
The action begins at St James’ Park where Newcastle entertain Arsenal. The 3pm starts see Aston Villa facing Sunderland at Villa Park, Bournemouth playing Leicester at the Goldsands, Chelsea hosting Crystal Palace in a London derby at the Bridge, Liverpool going up against West Ham at Anfield, Man City hosting Watford in a potential top vs bottom clash and Stoke face their former manager Tony Pulis when they host West Brom at the Britannia. The fixtures conclude at White Hart Lane as Spurs play Everton in the evening kick off.
With so many matches on there is plenty of betting potential around and for me that potential begins right at the start with the Newcastle vs Arsenal game.
Newcastle were very organised and disciplined at Old Trafford last week in a surprising sort of performance from Steve McClaren’s charges but I’m not convinced the passionate Geordie crowd will let them be as defensive and disciplined in this match. They pay to see their team going forward and that should lead to more emphasis going on the home side to attack.
That should allow Arsenal to play something of their natural game so in turn this should be a good match to watch. Arsenal love sides who are open in defensive areas as their slick passing game can open those sides up almost at will.
Arsenal could be without their defensive pairing of Koscielny and Mertesacker again for this match while Newcastle will have Papiss Cisse back and Florian Thauvin could even make a full debut for the hosts. Both sides attack better than they defend and I see more than 2.5 goals being scored in this one.
In the 3pm matches there are a few I can’t get a feel on. I was impressed with what I saw with Stoke on Tuesday night but I saw them against a League Two side so we shouldn’t compare that really but I would be surprised if they don’t beat West Brom. With the Pulis return and all that I’m not sure there’s much value in the Potters though especially as a number of their players did 120 minutes in the week.
Aston Villa vs Sunderland is another game I can’t really decide on. There could be a few nerves floating around as both are likely to be towards the bottom end of the table come the end of the season so that could be a bit tighter than perhaps Villa would like it to be so I’ll leave that one alone.
You would think Chelsea and Liverpool should coast past Palace and West Ham respectively but neither have looked good enough in the final third for me to be convinced enough to back them on a handicap. I do fancy goals in the other games though.
Bournemouth and Leicester are two offensive sides and in Riyad Mahrez and Callum Wilson they have two of the leading scorers this season so far. It isn’t just who they have scoring it is how they set themselves up. Both play with two up front and put a real emphasis on playing in the opposition half, putting defenders under pressure and creating mistakes and capitalising on it.
Bournemouth have just been involved in a 4-3 while Leicester have played out a 4-2 win and a 2-1 win so both sides are scoring goals and they are both conceding them as well so I’m expecting at least three more goals in this one.
Man City have looked seriously strong so far this season and they take on a Watford side who have actually exceeded some expectations. The Hornets have drawn all three matches they have played but they’ve already played a couple of mid range sides in Everton and Southampton which bodes well for them. They’re up against the big boys for the first time here though.
Man City have played three matches and looked awesome in them all so far and they love nothing more than piling on the goals at the Etihad Stadium and that spells danger for Watford. That said I don’t see Watford going there on a damage limitation exercise. I think they’ll fight fire with fire. It may not be the wisest thing to do but if they can get among City and find the back of the net early it would put the leaders under pressure.
Ultimately when you’ve got the personnel City have and a few players needing to keep their form extremely strong ahead of Kevin de Bruyne’s imminent arrival it would be a surprise if City don’t win this and score a few goals in the process. At even money I’ll go with over 3.5 goals in this one as if Watford do score you’d think 3-1 is perfectly possible but we might not even need the visitors to find the net for the line to be covered.
Back Newcastle vs Arsenal – Over 2.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Stan James
Back Bournemouth vs Leicester – Over 2.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
Back Man City vs Watford – Over 3.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfred
Blog football YTD: -22.5pts
