It is a busy day in the Premier League on Saturday as all the title contenders with the exception of Liverpool are in action on what is likely to be another dramatic day in the top flight.
The match of the day probably comes in the early kick off as the leaders Man City face a tricky trip to Stoke. That is tricky at the best of times let alone when there is a massive Champions League match coming up in midweek.
There are six matches which kick off at 3pm with maybe the pick of them coming from Old Trafford as West Ham look to add Man Utd to the list of impressive sides they have beaten on the road this season. Sunderland head to Arsenal in another top side vs bottom side match.
Aston Villa are up against it when they go to Southampton while Jamie Vardy will be looking to equal the all-time top flight scoring record when Leicester travel to Swansea. Two promoted sides face off when Watford host Norwich and West Brom will be after another home win against a London side when Tottenham come to town.
After all that we will see if Chelsea can continue their mini resurgence when they host Bournemouth in the evening game at Stamford Bridge.
I have to say I’m tempted to get involved in Stoke in some way because I do think City will have an eye on midweek and the Britannia is never an easy place to go but Stoke had a big match in midweek which might have left a bit of a mark so I’ll tentatively leave that one.
There are some bets I like though. Before I get onto those I’ll quickly cover the main matches and why I don’t like any bets there. In truth I was tempted to back West Ham on a big handicap against a goal shy United but that defeat to Tottenham puts me off and they’ve not looked the same side since Dimitri Payet was injured. There’s no Rooney for United but even that isn’t quite enough to tempt me.
Arsenal look good things against Sunderland and I would be surprised if they don’t win but the handicap is between 1.5 and 1.75 which is a lot given their injuries and the fact we can expect Big Sam to park the bus. I’m convinced better value lies elsewhere.
I’m convinced that value begins at St Mary’s as Southampton host Aston Villa for the second time this season after the two met here in the Capital One Cup earlier in the campaign. Southampton won that match 2-1 and I’m expecting goals again here.
Villa looked an absolute shambles at the back against Watford last week but in fairness to them they created a fair few chances against a stubborn defence and the time has come where they have to fight fire with fire now you would think.
Southampton have just been wiped out in the Capital One Cup and while Villa are no Liverpool it does show they are vulnerable defensively but they’re not vulnerable going forward. Sadio Mane hit a five minute hat trick in this fixture last season and with Villa always involved in matches with goals the even money on over 2.5 looks great here.
Value also lies at the Liberty Stadium where Leicester should be a little shorter than they are to beat win-shy Swansea. Amazingly you can get odds against on the Foxes on a draw no bet line and that is just too good to refuse.
It is pretty common knowledge the pressure is on Garry Monk. His chairman might not have admitted it but papers have enough sources to get these things right these days so he desperately needs a result. Swansea’s only win in their last 10 league games was against a wretched Aston Villa and they made hard work of that so this line really does look a safe one.
Leicester are going great guns at the minute and contrary to public opinion they’re not all about Jamie Vardy however good he may be. The likes of Riyad Mahrez and Danny Drinkwater are having excellent seasons too.
What I like about Leicester is we know they have fight in them and some real heart even if they go behind and that makes them very attractive on this particular line.
Chelsea are warm favourites to see off Bournemouth and the line has moved to a -1.5 handicap now but a better way to play the match might be on Chelsea to win and both teams to score just in case Chelsea only win by one goal.
You would think were Chelsea to win by a solitary goal they would concede along the way as Bournemouth’s defence isn’t going to keep Eden Hazard and co quiet for 90 minutes given what we’ve seen recently.
We’ve seen Chelsea opened up at home this season though and Bournemouth have enough pace and flair to be the latest side to do that especially with Nemanja Matic not fully fit yet.
I’m confident Chelsea will win but I’ll take a chance the Cherries find the net along the way to net us a bit of value in the late game.
Back Southampton vs Aston Villa – Over 2.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
Back Leicester (0AH) to beat Swansea for a 4/10 stake at 2.05 with Bet365
Back Chelsea to beat Bournemouth and both teams to score for a 3/10 stake at 3.10 with Boylesports
Blog football YTD: -29.07pts
