It is the final day of the regular season in the Big Bash League on Saturday and the first part of the campaign concludes with a double header of action with everything on the line. Going into the day three semi-final spots are yet to be filled and two sides hoping for one of them meet in the opening match.
Hobart Hurricanes need to win and improve their net run rate significantly in order to make the semi-finals but opponents Perth need a win to be sure of their place in the playoffs so there is plenty at stake here.
Hobart Hurricanes
Hobart have had quite a few days off since that remarkable win over the Melbourne Renegades which kept them alive in the tournament which should have given them enough time to get everyone fit and also to make up some solid game plans for this match. They will know all the mathematical equations of what they need to do going into the match.
If Hobart are going to win and qualify they simply have to bowl better than they have done in the tournament to date. That has been the area of their game that has suffered and if they need to win by roughly 30 runs or with three overs remaining they don’t need to be chasing 200 or so like they have been doing.
Perth Scorchers
The equation for the twice champions is simple. They don’t need to worry about the mathematics of everything. If they win they are in and if they win by a sizeable margin or win and Melbourne Stars lose later in the day then they will host the Stars in the semi-final next week. They can focus purely on winning the match.
The strength of the Scorchers this season has been with the ball, as it so often has been, but they don’t lack anything with the bat in terms of depth so you’ve got to think they will have all angles covered in this match. Although they only have to win if they are in control we can expect them to really go for it to boost their run rate in the hope of a home semi.
Team News
Hobart Hurricanes have made one change to their squad with Clive Rose coming back into the fold. There is no place in it for Shaun Tait. Stuart Broad could be playing his final match for the franchise.
Perth Scorchers have captain Adam Voges and wicket-keeper Sam Whiteman back from their respective injuries and both could start the match. Cameron Bancroft is one who is likely to make way.
Betting
I think it is difficult to bet on the match outcome here because both may well look for targets different to winning the match. Hobart certainly will. A win is of no use to them. They have to win by a certain margin while Perth will also have a different total in mind if they get off to a good start. You would think Perth are in the better situation but this is a different entity to most T20 matches.
Instead I’m going to take the boundaries here. The line is 37.5 which seems to be a generic line at times but it is one I fancy will get covered here. So far in Hobart we’ve had 49 boundaries, 31 and 39 and I’ll excuse the 31 because it came against the Adelaide Strikers who’ve not batted all that well all season.
That means the line has been covered two out of the three times we’ve had cricket here this season which is a positive and when you factor in the must go for it nature of the game I’m expecting more boundaries here.
Tips
Back Over 37.5 boundaries for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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