The second part of the Big Bash League double header on Thursday sees the action returning to the Gold Coast as the Brisbane Heat take on the Melbourne Stars in what has suddenly become a pretty important match in the competition.
This is big because the team who win this match will end the day inside the play-off spots and whoever loses will be battling to get back into the spots which will see them compete in the finals later in the month.
Brisbane Heat
Having looked like they might set records for being the worst team in the competition in their opening three matches, the Brisbane Heat have regrouped and won three of their last four and even the one they lost they should have won as well, so from being also-rans they are slowly turning into genuine challengers for the title if they can continue their rate of improvement. Those last four matches have all been in Brisbane so the first test comes here now that they are away from The Gabba.
At the start of the tournament the Brisbane Heat batting looked a mess and their bowling was all over the shop. Credit where it is due, that was recognised and one or two culprits were dumped from the side and that, along with some key reinforcements arriving, has turned the ship around and now you suspect the Heat are just one convincing performance away from The Gabba from being classed as genuine dark horses for the title.
Melbourne Stars
In many ways the season has been the opposite way round for the Melbourne Stars. They won their opening two matches but then went on a winless run which they finally ended last time out when they got the better of the Hobart Hurricanes although you wouldn’t necessarily say they were completely convincing. They were indebted to a wonderful innings from Marcus Stoinis to get them up to a score which proved too much for the Hurricanes to chase down.
That win kept the Melbourne Stars in the top five but before we can believe they are back to where they were at the beginning of the competition, we need to see a big showing from them. We need to see it from their whole batting unit rather than the individual efforts we have seen recently. Those can get teams over the line but rarely is it is winning long-term strategy. If they can get their batting line up firing on all cylinders you suspect they have the bowlers to get the job done.
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Team News
Chris Lynn came back as an X-Factor substitute in the win over the Thunder last time out and it appears he has had no issues in light of that showing and will come back into the starting XI here. He could well come in for Max Kuhnemann.
The big news for the Melbourne Stars is that Pakistan seamer Haris Rauf is in the country and is ready to play after arriving from New Zealand. He replaces Zahir Khan in the squad and will most likely come in for him in the side too. Nathan Coulter-Nile and Nic Maddinson are still missing.
Betting
I went with the sixes in the earlier match and I think it is worth sticking with that in this second game. I certainly wouldn’t have taken it earlier in the season but the Brisbane Heat batting looks to have come to the party and having Chris Lynn back combined with some other six hitters makes me think the 11.5 sixes line might not be high enough to contain what are two pretty powerful batting line-ups when you consider the hitting depth that they both have down the order.
We know the Melbourne Stars can score sixes on this ground. They can score them on any ground in the country when you think that in Marcus Stoinis, Glenn Maxwell and Nicholas Pooran they have three of the biggest hitters in the world game. Add in players like Andre Fletcher and Hilton Cartwright and there is plenty of hitting power in the Stars. This ground has short areas on it where the boundaries can be accessed by shorter hitters so over 11.5 sixes looks fair to me.
Tips
WON – Back Over 11.5 sixes for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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