A decent run of events on the European Tour begins on Thursday with the BMW International Open from Germany as the run up to The Open starts to kick off in earnest. This is one of the bigger tournaments on the European Tour and is usually a good week.
Although it comes the week after the US Open a pretty solid field has been assembled and that includes the defending champion Pablo Larrazabal. He kicks off the tournament as a 60/1 shot to successfully retain the title.
Recent Champions
2015 – Pablo Larrazabal
2014 – Fabrizio Zanotti
2013 – Ernie Els
2012 – Danny Willett
2011 – Pablo Larrazabal
2010 – David Horsey
2009 – Nick Dougherty
2008 – Martin Kaymer
2007 – Niclas Fasth
2006 – Henrik Stenson
The Course
Larrazabal will be defending the title on a different course to the one which he won the title on last year and indeed in 2011. This is a tournament where the host course alternates and we are back at the Golf Club Gut Laerchenhof this year.
Two years ago when the tournament was last held here there was a four man playoff with Zanotti winning the tournament. This is a Jack Nicklaus designed course and we know from the ones which have been played on of his on the PGA Tour that they are largely a second shot course although with all the rain that has been around Europe in the last week I think there is a little more of a premium on hitting the fairway.
In fact anyone who has seen Pablo Larrazabal’s twitter feed will have seen just how thick and juicy the rough is this week so I’m after tee to green machines in this tournament.
As for the numbers the course is a par 72 which measures 7,229 yards so you don’t need to be long to tame it but scoring on the par 5s has been crucial around here previously. On a soft course length won’t be harmful as long as you keep it straight.
The Field
Among the top names in the field this week is the current Masters champion Danny Willett. Some of Europe’s finest join him including Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson while European Tour winners from the season so far Andrew Johnston, Jeunghun Wang, Haotong Li and Soomin Lee are also in what is a decent field given it is the week after a major.
Market Leaders
Sergio Garcia is the 8/1 favourite this week and the way he was striking the ball last week makes him a worthy favourite but majors take a lot out of players especially ones in contention and in particular the US Open so Sergio is plenty short enough for me I have to say.
Henrik Stenson is next at 9/1 but having pulled out of the US Open halfway through I’m not interested in having my money on him at a single figure price. Danny Willett is 10/1 to win around here for the second time and that is of more interest but I just sense his game isn’t in complete tip top condition.
Behind those three Joost Luiten is a 22/1 shot with Andy Sullivan at 28/1. It is 33/1 bar those five named which shows how competitive this field is.
Main Bets
I’m keen to avoid those who played in the US Open last week for a few reasons. It is a mentally challenging week in that tournament but the Oakmont greens were lightning quick and I don’t think going from those greens to these will be a natural thing. Throw in the travelling and those who appeared last week have enough questions about them to be ignored.
My first pick is Joost Luiten who is perfectly suited to these conditions. Luiten is a solid and straight driver off the tee and he finds a lot of greens in the right number. Sometimes he can have issues with the putter but that hasn’t been the case too often this season where he has achieved seven top 10 finishes including a pair of runner up spots in April.
Quite simply Luiten is due and having not had to go around the world to play in the US Open last week I think he is the man to beat here. The Dutchman has three top 11 finishes in this tournament and I’m expecting him to beat that by some this week.
Another man who gets it done from tee to green is Thorbjorn Olesen. He isn’t as straight as Luiten but his length makes up for that. He is in the top 20 in greens in regulation on the European Tour this year and on these greens he tends to putt pretty well.
Prior to his missed cut on far too tight a track at Wentworth, the Dane had made four top 20 finishes in a row which built nicely on a couple of top 10s in the Middle East earlier in the season. Olesen is a man in form and we saw in Scotland last year how he can get it done. I think he’s overpriced for a good run here.
Outsiders
As ever I’ll throw a couple of darts at the bigger prices and one of them could be defined as the defending champion in Fabrizio Zanotti. The Paraguayan won this tournament the last time it was here and he might just be coming into form at the right time to win it again.
He has three top 20 finishes in his last five outings and in one of the other two he was on his way to another good finish before the weekend found him out in the Nordea Masters. In those three top 20 finishes he was in the top 12 on fairways hit in each of them and ranked fifth and second in greens hit in two as well. A repeat of that ball striking will have him right there this week.
Gregory Havret lost to Zanotti in a playoff here two years ago but that isn’t why I’m going to chance him again here. He is relentlessly straight. He sits fifth on the European Tour for fairways hit and 30th for Greens in Regulation. The only thing that has let him down this season has been his putting but back on greens he’s gone well on before should bring about an upturn in that.
Havret has recently changed caddies and that can often spark a game into life as a new relationship builds so I’m expecting Havret to run fairly hot this week. I’ll pay to see just how hot at 200/1.
Tips
Back J.Luiten to win BMW International Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back T.Olesen to win BMW International Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back F.Zanotti to win BMW International Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
Back G.Havret to win BMW International Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
