The flagship event of the DP World Tour takes place this week when the stars of golf head to Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship, a Rolex Series competition which is always a significant tournament in any season and no less the case this time around.
Ryan Fox took down the tournament last year and collected the many benefits that go with winning this competition. The Kiwi is back in the field this time around looking to make a successful defence of the crown against a packed line up.
Recent Winners
2023 – Ryan Fox
2022 – Shane Lowry
2021 – Billy Horschel
2020 – Tyrrell Hatton
2019 – Danny Willett
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Alex Noren
2016 – Chris Wood
2015 – Byeong-Hun An
2014 – Rory McIlroy
The Course
The West Course at Wentworth is the home of this tournament and with the touches it has had done to it over the last 10 years it is now a stunning facility. The one thing that hasn’t changed around here is the tightness of the track. It is a treelined course with some undulations on the opening nine and some tough holes on the back nine. The track finishes with two of the best par 5s on the European Tour.
The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7,267 yards so it isn’t overly long and it might not play to a full yardage this week with the weather generally being quite good recently. We’re looking for good drivers of the ball this week and those with a wonderful iron game. These greens are big and they are full of undulations so the leaderboard tends to be packed with good approach players. The two main statistics tend to be greens in regulation and scrambling so those who are more comfortable with the irons in hand should be favoured.
The Field
The field for this tournament rarely disappoints and it hasn’t done this time around either. There is no PGA Tour offering this week which certainly helps and as such we have Rory McIlroy as the standout player in the field. A tournament is always bettered by the return of the defending champion and Ryan Fox is here which adds to the profile. The Irish Open winner Rasmus Hojgaard is also here looking to make it a special two weeks for the Dane.
With this being a Rolex Series event significant moves can be made on the Race to Dubai rankings and behind the 1-2 of McIlroy and Hojgaard, the likes of Thriston Lawrence, Jesper Svensson, Robert MacIntyre, Adam Scott, Sebastian Soderberg, Niklas Norgaard, Matteo Manassero and Rikuya Hoshino are all in the top 10 of those standings looking to make a big move up the rankings. Recent winners of this event Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel and Danny Willett are also in a stacked field this week.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is beginning to make a habit of coughing up leads in the final nine on Sunday and despite having done that again in Ireland last week he will tee it up as the 6/1 favourite to win this tournament. This course suits him but he hasn’t won this title since 2014, although his last four goes around here he has finished in the top 10. You wonder if he’ll need to come from slightly off the pace on Sunday to get the job done here but last week combined with the US Open doesn’t inspire me into backing him.
Tommy Fleetwood is a 10/1 second favourite to get his hands on the biggest title on the DP World Tour for the first time this week. He is another who should be really suited to the test in front of him and the fact it is dry should help him a little more as he’ll get more help off the ground. His record here is mixed though with T6 twice being the best he has done in 12 appearances. He was second at the Olympics just over a month ago and went T22-T5-20 in the three PGA Tour playoff events so he’s in decent form and has every chance if his poor record here can be forgotten.
Adam Scott is 14/1 on the best prices to win this tournament. He has had a good time of it in the UK this season having finished second in the Scottish Open and then recording a top 10 at The Open where he was going along quite nicely at one point. Since then, he has gone T18-T2-T4 through the PGA Tour playoffs so he is playing very well and if the three week break hasn’t cooled his form down then he is entitled to go well. Just hit up and down putting would put me off the Australian.
Shane Lowry won this tournament two years ago when it was reduced to 54 holes and he is 16/1 to get his hands back on the trophy. He was solid if unspectacular in Ireland last week but we know he is flushing it from tee to green at the minute and that will give him every chance here. The big question is whether he can hole some putts and get into contention but his putter has been too cold for far too long and while I often like him around here you can’t win if you can’t get the ball in the hole so he isn’t for me.
Main Bets
It isn’t too long ago that Justin Rose had a real shot at winning The Open so we know he still has a top level game inside him and if that can come out on a track he will know like the back of his hand then he has to be a genuine runner this week. Rose has done everything but get his hands on this trophy having twice been a runner up but with another top 10 at the USPGA Championship as well as The Open, there is enough in his form guide to think that he can have another tilt at this title. Rose has an immaculate long game, he loves playing the big events and performing in front of the big crowds and he’ll want an automatic spot on the Ryder Cup team which a win here would put him in a good position to achieve. He ticks all the boxes to me.
Laurie Canter has been having a fine season so far, topped off with his maiden DP World Tour title in the European Open earlier in the campaign. He has been second here in the past in one of only two trips to this tournament. I’m not going to hold the missed cut in the second one against him because that was in 2022 when the Queen died and the second day of the event was kyboshed and he was out of it after the first one really. That second place is encouraging as is the fact he has three other top 10s on the season. He was in the mix at halfway last week but couldn’t push on but he is in the top 20 on the DP World Tour for strokes gained tee to green and scrambling so if his putter can be warm he shouldn’t be far away.
Outsiders
With no PGA Tour event this week I’ll add a couple of outsiders to my team this week. The first one is Sebastian Soderberg, a player who sits first on the DP World Tour for strokes gained on approach, eighth for SG tee to green and ninth for scrambling. He is one of the best players on tour this season and all he has lacked is a title. His one DP World Tour title came at the European Masters though. That is a tight, treelined track like this one, so that bodes well and therefore maybe it isn’t a surprise that he co-led the field at halfway here last year. He faded badly in round three but he is clearly a better player now and playing even better so I’ve got to pay to see if he can complete all four rounds in good shape this time.
Frederic Lacroix is another player who ticks a lot of boxes at the minute and having won for me at the Danish Golf Championship I feel obliged to back him again. He sits in the top 20 for strokes gained on approach, top 10 for strokes gained tee to green and 21 on the scrambling charts so if he can keep a putter warm there is no reason why he can’t outperform his price. He comes in here off the back of a closing 66 in Ireland last week and prior to winning in Denmark he was T20 at the BMW International Open and T3 at the Czech Masters so his form over the last six weeks or so is very good. He was T65 in his only appearance here two years ago where he went 67-71 for the last two rounds. As a better player now he should be a leading player.
Rikuya Hoshino is another player who has won with my money on him this season. His win came at the Qatar Masters and when you consider that he sits 11 on the strokes gained approach ranking this season, 17 on the tee to green statistic and 40 in scrambling he has all the tools to go well around here. They say you need to play this course to get the hang of it so it is encouraging that in his only appearance here a year ago he finished T25 where he was T12 going into the final round. As a winner on the DP World Tour now he should carry an extra confidence to Wentworth with him and I think the Japanese player can build on that solid effort of last year.
Finally I’ll take a real punt on Dan Bradbury at a monster price. As you would expect for a 375/1 shot his form is scratchy but when he is good he tends to go well and so it could be worth paying to see how he goes here. He was third when defending his Joburg Open title at the beginning of the season, T22 at the European Open on a really tough track and T10 in Italy on a tight course. He also put a decent four rounds together at the Czech Masters last month so there are bits of form that suggest he shouldn’t be 375/1 on home soil. He has only played this tournament once and was T51 but he carded a pair of 68s in that so he can score on this course. Bradbury is sixth on the SG approach and 26 SG tee to green so if he can find some greens he might keep us interested right through until Sunday.
Tips
Back J.Rose to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Canter to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Soderberg to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back F.Lacroix to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back R.Hoshino to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back D.Bradbury to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 376.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
