Group B of the Champions Trophy concludes on Saturday when the tournament heads back to Karachi for the match between South Africa and an England side who have already been eliminated from the competition.
South Africa are through to the semi-final barring a disaster but a win could see them avoiding India in the last four and avoid rushing to Dubai to take on the tournament favourites. England are in a familiar position of playing for pride.
England
Not for the first time recently this has been a tournament to forget for England. They started it optimistic of reliving former glories despite being put in their place by India in a bilateral ODI series as emphatically as they were but the reality of where they are right now has soon come back to bite them and even in two matches they should have won, they haven’t got over the line in either and they’ll be making their way home with their tails between their legs after this match.
England, as ever these days, have been their own worst enemies. They could have had more runs than they got against Australia and had the run chase against Afghanistan in the palm of their hands but on both occasions egos got in the way and too many players fell into a trap or holed out in the deep. Whoever the captain is to take England forward needs to install some batting discipline in this team and then they might get back to where they were six years ago.
South Africa
South Africa don’t have any of those issues. They are where England were seven or eight years ago in that they are trending towards a global tournament win and they will be hoping that it comes along here in the next week or so. They have already been beaten in the T20 World Cup final and if you have to lose before you can win then they should be ready to go all the way. They look like they have reached the semi-final of this tournament and so are two wins from that elusive trophy.
There were question marks going into the tournament whether South Africa would have enough with the ball to get the job done. The signs against Afghanistan were that they do but with their second match being washed out against Australia we might find a better answer to that question here. The one thing which isn’t in doubt is how strong South Africa are with the bat, which is pretty incredible when you consider the relatively recent retirement of Quinton de Kock.
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Team News
England will once again be forced into another change to their bowling attack with Mark Wood the latest to be ruled out of the competition. Saqib Mahmood is expected to take his place in Jos Buttler’s final match as captain.
Heinrich Klaasen has been passed fit for South Africa for this match so he will make his debut in the competition here. Tony de Zorzi is the player expected to miss out with Temba Bavuma going up to steer the innings from the opening spot.
Betting
This isn’t quite a dead rubber because South Africa do need to avoid taking a tonking in order to confirm their qualification for the semi-final but the margin of defeat needed to deny them is so big that they would literally have to fall apart not to make it through so I’m treating this as a dead rubber and as such I don’t really want to get involved in the match betting, largely because if there is anything about this England cricket team at all then they will show up here.
Instead, I’ll go back to the angle that I have had ever since Brendon McCullum got involved in this England white ball team and that is for the boundaries to flow. We know how England will approach this. They will go hard with the bat from start to finish and they will attack with field placings and aggression with the ball which leaves them exposed to batters who get in. We know this wicket is playing brilliantly because of the four matches that have been staged here in the recent Pakistan Tri-series and this tournament, three of the first innings have been 315 and higher. South Africa have scored 352/5 which they failed to defend against Pakistan and 315/6 here so their batters will be comfortable. The boundary line for this one feels high at 63.5 but it isn’t really. The two England games in this tournament have yielded 80 and 63, the latter against a shot shy through the powerplay Afghanistan side. I don’t see South Africa being that timid so the over looks good here.
Tips
Back Over 63.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
