The second set of matches get underway in the Champions Trophy on Sunday when the two big Asian rivals battle it out over in Dubai when India look to seal their spot in the semi-finals when they go up against Pakistan.
India were comfortable winners of their opening match against Bangladesh on Friday while the day before then Pakistan were beaten by New Zealand which makes this a must-win match for the hosts if they are to stay at their own party.
Pakistan
We are only into the second match of the tournament for Pakistan but already they are playing for their tournament life and when you consider this is their home event, they will be desperate to beat the old enemy here and head back to Pakistan for their last group game still in the competition. If that is going to happen then they are going to need a marked improvement on what they delivered in the first game, but a move to Dubai might not be a bad thing for them.
Their best chance in this match is probably to play India on a pitch that has a little in it because if they played on a flat pitch without a seriously top drawer spinner then they were going to be found out but the recent ILT20 tournament means that the wickets here aren’t fresh so the bowlers will be in the game. That then brings their classy batters into the game as well so if the key men show up for Pakistan they might find that they have conditions, if not to their liking, then certainly that gives them a better chance of winning here.
India
You wouldn’t say that it was vintage India in that opening match when you consider how good that they looked against England in the warm up series recently but they did what they needed to do to get the win. They have enough tournament experience to know that you don’t need to peak in the first game. There isn’t as much wiggle room here so you would want to perform to an acceptable level, and they did, but it is certainly no bad thing that there is room for improvement.
The big concern would be how they allowed Bangladesh to escape from 35-5 to post over 200. In a knockout match they might need to be more ruthless with the ball, and you would imagine that they will be when you consider that the spinners are generally the ones who squeeze the innings and set the game up. India will certainly want to be more ruthless with the ball and probably a little more proactive at the top of the innings but sometimes the conditions dictate whether that is possible or not.
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Team News
Pakistan are going to be forced into a change for this match after Fakhar Zaman went down in the opening match. Imam-ul-Haq has been named as his replacement and he is expected to start with Usman Khan having to wait his chance. That could be the only change for the hosts.
India have no need to make any changes to their side unless they want to rotate their bowlers 48 hours after their opening game. If they do want to do that then you would imagine Arshdeep Singh for Mohammed Shami would be an obvious switch.
Betting
I think India will win this match but I’m not interested in backing them at the odds available because you would have to think we are going to see everything that Pakistan have to offer because their home tournament life is on the line here so they are going to max out here. I’m still not convinced it will be enough but the odds on India are short enough that I can leave that alone and look elsewhere for a bet to try and keep our unbeaten start to the competition intact.
That bet is actually the same one that I took on this ground on Friday which is the under on the run line. The line then was in the 520 range but it has jumped up to 560.5 for this one and I still don’t think it is going to be covered. Pakistan were way too tentative at the top of their innings in the opening game but having lost Fakhar Zaman it is open to debate whether they can be anything else. Pakistan have the bowling attack to get into this Indian order too. There was a full T20 tournament on this ground which finished a fortnight ago so the pitches are going to tire the longer these matches go on and when you put it all in the pot I don’t see 560 runs on what is traditionally a lower scoring ground anyway.
Tips
Back Under 560.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
