WED 16TH MAR
3.30pm Cheltenham: Queen Mother Champion Chase
For the big race on Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival, we move to the bigger obstacles and the 2 mile chasers do battle in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Generally speaking, the market is a good starting point in finding the winner with 6 of the 15 races this century going to the favourite, and 6 more to horses trading at 5/1 or under. Newmill, at 16/1, is the biggest priced winner of this race in that time, with Big Zeb and Sizing Europe the other 2 to start in double figures, both at 10/1.
Moscow Flyer, when regaining his crown in 2005, is the only horse older than 9 to have won in the last 15 runnings and that statistic alone would rule out 4 of the top 9 in the betting (the top 9 representing the only horses with realistic chances). 5 of the front 9 in the market ran in this last year, including the first 4 home. Dodging Bullets is the current holder of the 2 mile chasing crown but he’s only 3rd in the market this year, behind the up and coming star, Un De Sceaux, and the 2013 champion, Sprinter Sacre.
The winner of the previous season’s’ Arkle is normally the best place to start when looking for the most likely winner of this race and this year is no exception with Un De Sceaux, from the all conquering Willie Mullins yard, the odds on favourite. There is very little to suggest he won’t win here, winning 14 of his 16 career starts; the 2 defeats down to the fact he fell and both when looking like winning anyway. Backing odds on shots at the Festival is never a wise move but, equally, we cannot see any benefit to opposing him which is why any bet here will be confined to the ‘without Un De Sceaux’ market.
Should Un De Sceaux fail to make it to Cheltenham, he will be replaced by Vautour, another top class Mullins horse. However, at this stage, it looks certain that Vautour will run in either the Gold Cup or the Ryanair Chase.
Up until the end of 2013, Sprinter Sacre was seen as the next big chasing superstar, having captured this race without coming off the bridle, the Tingle Creek and the 2012 Arkle, winning 14 of his 16 starts. However, he was then found to have an irregular heartbeat and was off the track until 2015. Sprinter Sacre was pulled up in this race last year, clearly showing he wasn’t as good as he had been earlier in his career. He’s back to more like his old self this season, winning both starts including the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton last time out. There, he battled to victory over one of todays rivals, Sire De Grugy, but now a 10 year old, it must be questionable as to whether he will improve enough to land the spoils here. He would surely be a very popular winner amongst the general public but odds of just 5/1 (or 2/1 in the ‘without Un De Sceaux’ market) do not feel like value and he is therefore passed over.
The first 4 home here 12 months ago were Dodging Bullets, Somersby, Special Tiara and Sire De Grugy. It has widely been regarded as the weakest renewal of the race for many a year and, assuming that is the case, it might be better looking elsewhere for a bet. None of these 4 appear to have solid credentials, both from a form and a statistics perspective.
Since winning this race, Dodging Bullets has seen the racecourse just once, a disappointing 2nd of 4 to Top Gamble in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Whilst the ground was all wrong for him that day, there is also the big concern over how long it took for the 2015 champion to make his reappearance. Whilst he’ll be fitter come the big day where he should also get his favoured ground, it is worrying that his trainer, Paul Nicholls, was talking him up before that run at Newbury and then expressing severe disappointment immediately after it.
Somersby ran a cracker 12 months ago, finishing runner up for the 2nd year in a row. However, 40/1 more accurately reflects his chances this time around, especially as he’s now a veteran at 12 years old. Sire De Grugy’s age is also against him, now a 10 year old, and he is unlikely to show the required improvement needed to land the prize here. He was the winner of this in 2014 but didn’t really have any excuses last year so the fact he’s a year older and this is a hotter race puts me off him from a betting perspective. Softer ground would also be preferable.
In 3rd last year was Special Tiara but he had the run of the race that day, being gifted an easy lead. He’s almost certain not to have that luxury this year with Un De Sceaux in the field and, whilst his trainer says he doesn’t need to lead, it was clearly an advantage last year. He’ll appreciate the forecast ground and should run his race, but he has something to find on the form book and his 0 from 3 record at Cheltenham worries us.
The final 3 worthy of consideration are Felix Yonger, Gods Own and Sizing Granite, and it is from these 3 that our recommended bet comes. Felix Yonger is the 2nd string of Willie Mullins and the absence of Ruby Walsh in the saddle, who will ride Un De Sceaux, will be a loss. His form this season of 311 is better than most in this field but the opposition has been some way off what he’ll face today. He is another without a win from 3 attempts at Cheltenham and the trainer had already talked up a race in Japan as being his target rather than this race. The fact he lines up here is strange and we cannot recommend him at his current odds of around 14/1, having been double that 4 weeks ago.
Gods Own finished runner up to Un De Sceaux in the Arkle last term and strictly on that form, has a solid chance here. The big concern is that he continues to jump out to the right and is better suited to going the other way round. He is another who should run his race but he’ll be of more interest if lining up at Punchestown.
That leaves us with the Colm Murphy trained Sizing Granite. It is interesting that this horse has just recently moved stables from Henry De Bromhead and will actually be having his first run for his new stable in this race. He is a lightly raced 8 year old and will be having just his 8th run over fences, having won 4 of the previous 7. Before he ran at the Grand National meeting last April, the trainer was talking of him being very immature and that he expected massive improvement. We saw that at Aintree where he jumped brilliantly and beat one of todays rivals, Gods Own. He ran well on his reappearance after 6 months off, beaten a head, before disappointing at Leopardstown over Christmas where he finished a distant 5th. The heavy ground was to blame there and we should be prepared to overlook that run.
The key to Sizing Granite is good ground and coming off the back of a decent break. He’ll get that here and, other than Un De Sceaux, looks to be the one with the most scope for improvement. We’d be surprised if he’s good enough to beat the hot favourite but 16/1 looks a very fair price to overturn Sprinter Sacre, Dodging Bullets et al in the ‘without Un De Sceaux’ market. He represents the best value considering, for example, he’s double the price of Gods Own, a horse he beat last time they met, and 4 times the price of Dodging Bullets who has had a nightmare preparation.
Back Sizing Granite (e/w) without Un De Sceaux for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-3)
Back it here:
