TUE 15TH MAR
3.30pm Cheltenham: Champion Hurdle
It is what jump racing fans have waited all season for, the start of the Cheltenham Festival which gets underway at 1.30pm on Tuesday with the traditional curtain raiser, the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
The big race on Day 1 is the Champion Hurdle where the gloss has been taken off this year’s renewal with the absence of the current holder of the 2 mile hurdling crown, Willie Mullins’ Faugheen.
With Arctic Fire also missing, this looks one of the weaker renewals of the Champion Hurdle and, despite a warmish favourite in another Mullins trained horse Annie Power, it has an open feel to it. As we stand, it is looking like 13 runners will go to post and 2 trainers, Mullins and Nicky Henderson, dominate the entries accounting for 8 of the field.
It was expected that Annie Power would originally go for the Mares Hurdle or possibly even the World Hurdle but, with the absence of Faugheen, it appears that her target has changed to this for which she still needs supplementing. Currently trading at around 7/4, she has decent form to her name, winning 13 of her 15 starts. Interestingly though, both those defeats occurred here at the Festival and that has to put doubt in the mind. There also has to be question marks over her ability to win a top class race over this trip and, with that in mind, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if the owners did a 360 and went for the Mares Hurdle after all.
The other fancied Mullins runner is Nichols Canyon, the only horse to have beaten the mighty Faugheen. His form is solid, winning 3 of 4 starts this term; his only defeat came last time out when easily brushed aside in the Irish Champion Hurdle by both of the major absentees for this year’s race. Concerns centre around his jumping and a niggling suspicion that he’s a better horse over further, especially if we get the good ground forecasted.
Identity Thief was the winner of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, a solid yardstick for the Champion Hurdle albeit as a place, rather than win, proposition. He is lightly raced, having only run 7 times over hurdles, winning 3 of those. Has never raced at Cheltenham which is a big negative for us and looks at his best on softish ground. Identity Thief is closely matched with Nichols Canyon, having finished close up last time out, and probably has more scope for improvement than the Mullins runner, but 5/1 is plenty short enough for a horse unproven at the very top, and having his first run at the Festival.
The other 2 horses trading under 10/1 are My Tent Or Yours and The New One. The former finished 2nd in this race 2 years ago but has raced only once since and has to overcome a monster 703 day absence. That would be an unbelievable training feat and it must rank as more unlikely than his odds of 8/1 suggest.
The New One, on the other hand, seems overpriced on what he has achieved on the racecourse. A winner of 16 of his 23 races, he’s only finished out of the first 3 twice; once when 6th in the Champion Bumper in 2012 and then again last year in this race when 5th of 8. We should be prepared to ignore that run as he had an interrupted preparation and was the least likely to be suited by the muddling pace, something that’s unlikely to recur here. Has won at the Festival, the Neptune in 2013, and was 3rd behind My Tent Or Yours in that 2014 Champion Hurdle but would surely have won had he not been badly hampered.
He was only workmanlike in his prep race but heavy ground was against him and the forecast better ground will suit. There appears to be several question marks over his rivals and his proven form in this type of race over this course and distance make The New One a cracking each way bet at 13/2.
At bigger prices, Nicky Henderson has 4 of those runners. Top Notch and Hargam are the 2 most likely but neither have done enough this term to convince us, with the former almost certainly needing soft ground whilst Hargam should appreciate the better ground but his winless season counts against him. Of his other 2, Sign Of A Victory looks to be outclassed and the wellbeing of last years Triumph Hurdle winner, Peace And Co, is a worry having had a nightmare preparation.
There is one that does interest me at a big price, that horse being Old Guard from the Paul Nicholls yard. He’s only a 5 year old which could be viewed as a negative but you can only be impressed by his 3 wins at this track this term. He travels really well, likes good ground and, unlike many of his rivals, is a fluent hurdler. He will be suited coming off a fast pace and, whilst he needs to improve again, we think he can. His only poor run was at Kempton over Christmas but even the trainer admits it was a mistake to run him there. Regular jockey Sam Twiston-Davies will partner The New One so this looks like a great spare ride, with Nick Schofield the most likely benefactor.
Back The New One (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 7.50 with Paddy Power (¼ 1-3, NRNB)
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Back Old Guard (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Skybet (¼ 1-3, NRNB, BOG)
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