The PGA Tour heads back to Texas this week for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, an event which has been a mainstay on the circuit for a while but which has undergone changes either in the schedule or the host track regularly in recent times.
Jason Day wasn’t worrying about any of that sort of thing when he won this tournament last year and the Australian will return to Texas looking to make a successful defence of the title. A fair field will oppose him.
Recent Winners
2023 – Jason Day
2022 – K-H Lee
2021 – K-H Lee
2019 – Sung Kang
2018 – Aaron Wise
2017 – Billy Horschel
2016 – Sergio Garcia
2015 – Steven Bowditch
2014 – Brendon Todd
2013 – Sang-moon Bae
The Course
TPC Craig Ranch is the venue for this tournament for the fourth time. The course itself is a par 72 which measures 7,414 yards and one thing to always bear in mind whenever a tournament is in Texas is the winds that often blow. For that reason the greens will run quite slow this week so that the impact of the wind on the surfaces is marginalised. Rain is expected to blow through over the entire week too so conditions could get tricky.
Generally in Texas the premium is on hitting the greens. The run off areas and trouble around the greens can make scrambling quite difficult but inevitably players will be required to scramble at times so good iron players should come to the fore. Strokes gained on approach has been a big thing in the three years so far with the winning scores being between -23 and -26 and it is expected to be low once again here so it makes sense to have those who can get the ball to the hole on side as well.
The Field
This tournament rarely gets the greatest field going around with the next major of the season just a couple of weeks away and the weather in this part of the world often putting the stars off so close to such a big event but one man who is generally a constant in the tournament is Jordan Spieth and the Texan headlines the field once again. The other headliner is the defending champion Jason Day who will be looking to follow K-H Lee and win successive Byron Nelson titles.
There is a strong international charge at the event this week behind Day with Si Woo Kim, Byeong-Hun An, Adam Scott, Sungjae Im and Min Woo Lee all having tee times this week. It has to be said that the majority of the European heavyweights on the PGA Tour are missing which means that the European invasion is led by the likes of Alex Noren, Stephan Jaeger and Thomas Detry. Other leading Americans in the field include Tom Hoge, Keith Mitchell and Adam Schenk.
Market Leaders
Jordan Spieth is the most decorated player in the field in terms of titles won so it probably isn’t a surprise that he is the 16/1 favourite to win this tournament but he has been struggling with an injury recently and that would immediately put me off. To be fair, this track does suit him, although he might like it a little less wet where the run offs bring a real emphasis onto the short game which would put him ahead of most. He isn’t for me.
Si Woo Kim comes next in the market at 18/1. The Korean lives in this part of the world which is often a bit of a tip in itself and he finally got to grips with the course last year when he was the closest challenger to Jason Day. He has just one top 10 finish this season, although that was at The Players Championship, but he does have four other top 20 finishes. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins this week but I’m not rushing to back him at 18/1.
The defending champion Jason Day is 22/1 to keep hold of the title this week. There is nothing to suggest that he can’t do that other than whether the waiting around with what we expect to be a few weather delays impact him as they have in the past. In terms of the track, he is perfect for this place and he has been playing good golf for a while. Regular readers will know that I don’t do defending champions but it is hard to put anyone off this one.
Three players come along at 25/1 to win the tournament this week. Byeong-Hun An had a really encouraging start to the season and has the aggressive style which should go well here while Alex Noren and Adam Scott have both had good results around here. Noren could be a very strong contender on a soft course where his iron play could really come into its own. Scott has never really floated my boat when a winning score in the mid-twenties is required though.
Main Bets
I’m all for aggressive golf this week and so there are a couple of Korean players that I want onside here. The first of those is Tom (Joohyung) Kim. It is fair to say that this season hasn’t really got going for the popular Korean star yet but his best result came last time out at the RBC Heritage and he lives in Dallas so he will be able to spend the week in his own bed, which certainly might not be a bad thing if there are loads of delays this week. He has the aggressive golf game which should be perfect for a soft course where the order of the day is to go on the attack. This could be the week it all turns back around for Kim.
It is hard not to get involved in a man who has twice won around here in K-H Lee. He won in 2021 and 2022 and he won pretty well those years too, shooting -25 the first time around and -26 the second time. His hunt for a three-peat went awry last year but we know he can score on this course and he arrives here off the back of top 10 finishes at The Cognizant Classic and the Valspar Championship and he was just outside the top 10 alongside Michael Kim at the Zurich Classic last week. There are enough signs that Lee is hitting the ball well and on a course he eats up I have to be on him to win again.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple of punts with my outsiders this week, the first of which is Taylor Pendrith. He is a huge hitter and I do think that is an advantage on a soft track and he sits inside the top 20 in the strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season so he should go well here. He opened up 2024 with two top 10s in his first three starts and then was just outside the top 10 at the Corales Puntacana a couple of weeks ago, where he would surely have been in the top 10 and much better but for a one over final round of 73. He is long, aggressive and is putting well this season. That ticks all the boxes for me here so the Canadian is my first outsider bet.
The other bet I like this week is Cameron Champ. His results have been nothing to write home about going into this week but I do think the soft course will suit him. He ranks fourth in strokes gained off the tee and he is at 25 in strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season so it is the bit in between which has killed him more than it should do. If the course stays soft throughout then the greens will be more receptive and that should in theory help his iron play as the ball isn’t going to bounce and roll all over the place. I’ll pay to see how well he goes here.
Tips
Back T.Kim to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Pendrith to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back K-H.Lee to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Champ to win CJ Cup Byron Nelson (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
