The second set of matches in the Copa America 2016 end in the early hours of Saturday morning as Group D catch up with the rest of the competition. The first game of the two to be played sees Chile going up against Bolivia in a match between two sides who lost their opening matches.
Chile lost to Argentina in their tournament opener and there is never any shame in that while Bolivia lost to Panama and with what they have to come you would think they require snookers to make the knockout stages even this early in the competition.
You would have to say that the 2-1 scoreline when Chile played Argentina flattered the defending champions. At no real point did you get the impression they were ever in the game but the fact they scored last might have given them something to take from the game and in theory at least they have two easier matches to come.
Chile never went into the tournament in particularly good form and that is a concern especially after their opening match where they played so poorly but they have the chance to build some confidence over the next two matches ahead of what they will hope is the knockout stages for them.
Going into this tournament Bolivia will have known if they were to have any chance of progressing to the knockout stages they simply had to beat Panama in their opening match but they didn’t and conceding a late winner has left them with a real uphill battle which is bordering on an impossible task from here on in.
Given that Bolivia lost heavily to the United States in preparing for this tournament that now means they have lost back to back games against North American sides which isn’t ideal when two of the South American powerhouses are to come although at least they catch Chile out of form.
Team News
Chile went with Fabian Orellana on the bench in their opening match against Argentina with Jean Beausejour pushed further forward but against a side less likely to attack as strongly as Argentina it might be that Beausejour moves back and Orellana begins in place of Eugenio Mena.
Bolivia opted for a very fluent and attacking formation against Panama which was ultimately to their downfall and I suspect they will set up a little more defensive. Yasmani Duk could be one to make way if they choose to go in that direction with Juan Carlos Arce moving into the middle.
Head to Head
There have been 42 previous meetings between these two sides with the most recent of them coming in the Copa America last year, a match Chile won 5-0. That was Chile’s 26th win in those matches compared to Bolivia who have just six. They have finished all square on 10 different occasions.
Recent Bolivian wins are as rare as hens teeth these days with just one coming in the last 18 matches between the two but they can take some heart from the fact that they have drawn three of the last five clashes.
Betting
Last year this would have been a banker Chile win and that is how it proved to be as Chile won 5-0. It should still be a Chile win this year but the change of approach and the complete lack of form makes it slightly more questionable especially with these two having a habit of drawing in recent matches.
I still think Bolivia are there for the taking though but I can’t be getting involved in an out of form side to cover massive handicaps especially when they are leaking goals like a sieve themselves having conceded 15 times in their last eight matches.
That is a statistic I’m going to work from though and take a chance on over 3.5 goals here. The last four matches between these two have had four goals or more and six of the last eight also have so this is a fixtures which historically provides lots of goals. If Panama can score twice and expose Bolivia regularly Chile should be able to do much more damage but I’m still not convinced the champions keep a clean sheet. That gives over 3.5 goals every chance.
I’m also going to have a dabble on an anytime scorer in this match where Marseille’s Mauricio Isla is far too big at 9/1. Although he is down as a right back whenever Chile attack he is almost a right winger and the way they attack he gets himself in and around the area a fair bit and isn’t shy to shoot.
This match could turn into target practice for the Chileans so I’ll take a punt that Isla is among those to find it.
Tips
Back Over 3.5 goals for a 4/10 stake at 2.38 with William Hill
Back it here:
Back M.Isla to score anytime for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
