The second match of the night in the Copa America on Tuesday or the early hours of Wednesday morning UK time is an all-South American clash as Colombia look to secure qualification for the quarter finals when they take on Paraguay in California.
Colombia won their opening match and they know a win here sends them into the knockout stages while Paraguay picked up a draw in their opening game and know if they can find a win they will only need to avoid defeat to the USA in their final match to progress.
I thought Colombia were on easy street in their opening match. They won 2-0 but you get the feeling if they were really challenged they could have gone up another notch or two and won even more convincingly than they did. As it was they missed a raft of chances to win by more than two.
Going forward the fluency which Colombia attacked with should serve them well and if they can prove their worth defensively then this could be a tournament they go very close in. We can’t yet judge them defensively because the USA offered very little of note against them.
Paraguay huffed and puffed in their opening match but in stifling heat things fizzled out into a pretty predictable goalless draw with Costa Rica but having had that run out to get rid of any cobwebs they should be much more up to speed here although you suspect they will need to be.
I think you could tell from the team selection that their main priority in their first match was to ensure they didn’t lose first before thinking about winning but now that events are starting to get more serious I would like to think they will show a little more intent here.
Team News
Colombia are set to be without their captain James Rodriguez who picked up a shoulder injury during the win over USA. His absence will be a blow but he did come off to be replaced by Edwin Cardona so we got an indication of how they’ll play in those few minutes.
Paraguay left Nelson Valdez on the bench from the outset against Costa Rica but the time might have come where he starts and they set up a little more attacking. If not we should expect them to be largely unchanged.
Head to Head
There have been 42 past meetings between these two sides. Many of them in this tournament and more in World Cup qualifying. Colombia have the historical edge with 19 wins to Paraguay’s 17 and there have been six draws too.
In more recent times Colombia have very much had the better of things. They have lost just two of the last 10 matches and have won four of the last five so Jose Pekerman’s men should be going into this one full of confidence.
Betting
There is something trappy about this match in my mind. Most logical things would suggest that a Colombia win is the most likely outcome here but I’m not convinced this is one of those matches which is going to follow the logic.
I fancy Paraguay might just be strong enough defensively to keep a Colombia attack missing its star man quiet and there is something in me that thinks that ‘La Albirroja’ might find the net and make things really interesting.
I’m going to largely sit the match out here but Dario Lezcano caught my eye in Paraguay’s opening match and if they can get more service to him he might find the back of the net as he did against Ecuador and Brazil in World Cup Qualifying earlier in the year.
Tips
Back D.Lezcano to score anytime for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with Bwin
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