Mexico and Chile meet in the early hours of Sunday morning to determine who will secure the final place in the last four of the Copa America Centenario. The two teams will do battle in Santa Clara knowing that Colombia will be their opponents in the semi-final should they win here.
Chile survived an onslaught by Panama to finish behind Argentina in Group D and make it through while Mexico came from behind against Venezuela to ensure they finished top of Group C. This one looks the pick of the quarter finals on paper.
For me Mexico have looked the best team in this tournament. They have defended stoutly so far and their invention, pace, skill and flamboyance in attack have all been really good to watch and it would be fitting if they go on and win the tournament.
The Mexicans have had good support in this campaign so far and I doubt that is going to change now that we’ve entered the knockout stages but they seem to be relishing that support and embracing it and in what could be a tight match here that support could really help get them over the line especially were this to go to spot kicks.
The defending champions have had a rocky road to make it this far but they showed last season how they can come through the knockout stages and those recent memories can inspire them to push on and really try and defend the title. They had the support on their side last year though and now go into the lion’s den somewhat.
If Chile are to go a lot further in this tournament then they are going to have to shape up better defensively. We know all about them as an attacking unit. They rival most in that area of the pitch but they look wide open in defence and I would be surprised if good sides don’t expose them in those areas.
Team News
Mexico left Javier Hernandez out of their side for the match against Venezuela in their final group game but we can expect the former Man Utd forward to return to the side here. Mexico have used all three keepers in the tournament so far so who they pick here will be interesting.
Chile unleashed Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas on Panama in their final group match and I’m expecting both to play here but they will be without Mauricio Isla who is suspended having picked up a second booking against Panama.
Head to Head
Mexico have won 17 of the 31 meetings these two have had in the past. Chile have nine wins and there have been five draws including when they met in the Copa America last year. That game ended 3-3 but I’m sure Mexican fans will be quick to point out that they didn’t send their strongest side to that tournament.
The two played a friendly to warm up for this tournament at the beginning of the month and Mexico won that by a goal to nil. That might be a better form guide but even then it was only a friendly.
Betting
Chile’s attack worries me. It has done all tournament. We shouldn’t think that this is the Chile attack that won the tournament under Jorge Sampaoli because it isn’t. They lack a fluency and exposing a Panama defence missing their best defender isn’t going to change that.
That makes me think Mexico are good things here. Not only do they attack with purpose they do it with so many numbers that they have the opportunity to overwhelm this Chile backline and the one thing the Mexicans don’t lack for is confidence.
If the Chile of 12 months ago turn up this could be a high scoring classic but I’m not so sure they are around anymore so whether it is by one goal or a few I’m with Mexico to get this one done before the need for spot kicks.
Tips
Back Mexico (0AH) to beat Chile for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with 888sport
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