The Group C winner will be confirmed when the Copa America resumes again in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Brazil’s exit on Monday has sent shock waves through the tournament but both Mexico and Venezuela know there is no chance of them going out.
With two wins each over Uruguay and Jamaica, both sides are officially confirmed as quarter finalists with the only thing left to be worked out being who will win the group and potentially avoid Argentina in the knockout stages. That will be Mexico if they avoid defeat here.
For me Mexico have been the team of the tournament so far with convincing wins over Uruguay and Jamaica and they look ready to launch a really big assault on the rest of this tournament. A win here would really assist them in that quest too as it would mean they couldn’t face Argentina until the final.
Mexico’s pace and power going forward has been too much for the opposition so far in the tournament and I see nothing changing in terms of their approach to this match either even though they only need a draw to seal top spot in the group.
There are a few teams emerging as surprise packages in this tournament but none of them come close to matching Venezuela in that regard. To have won one game was surprising enough but to beat Uruguay was even more so and they will be hoping they’ve not run out of unlikely wins just yet.
Perhaps an even bigger surprise with this Venezuelan side is that having only won once in 15 matches coming into the tournament that they have managed back to back clean sheets. A third one here could yet see them snatch top spot in the group and send them to the top half of the draw.
Team News
Any temptations Mexico might have had are likely to be tempered by the fact that avoiding Argentina has to be a priority. One change they can make is to bring back Andres Guardado who missed the win over Jamaica having been sent off against Uruguay.
Venezuela certainly have no need to make unforced changes and after two wins in a row confidence will never have been higher in their camp. They will be forced into one change though with Arquimedes Figuera missing the match through suspension.
Head to Head
Mexico have been dominant over Venezuela through the years. That is no surprise because most sides have the better of Venezuela over a series of matches. In all Mexico have 13 wins in the 18 matches these two have played with only two defeats. There have been three draws between the two as well.
The recent record is even more in Mexico’s favour. They have won nine and drawn two of the last 11 matches and haven’t been beaten by a Venezuela side since 1982.
Betting
Mexico are in the middle of a fantastic run of form and I don’t see it ending here. They don’t need to win but I don’t see them not winning based on what we’ve seen in this group so far.
Credit to Venezuela who have done amazingly well to get this far but Uruguay would have got at least a draw against them if Edinson Cavani hadn’t missed a sitter late on and they had enough chances to win that game.
At the end of the day there is a clear gulf in class between these two sides and Venezuela don’t face out of form opposition here like they have in their previous two matches. I expect them to really struggle and the longer this one goes the better I expect Mexico to get and they can put on a bit of a clinic here.
I’m really surprised the Asian line for this match is only -1 guaranteeing us a refund for any mundane Mexico win. I think it will be much more emphatic than that though so I’m all over that line for El Tri here.
Tips
Back Mexico (-1AH) to beat Venezuela for a 6/10 stake at 1.93 with Bet365
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