A few days ago we previewed the outright market in the Cricket World Cup and now with the tournament beginning to get ever closer it is time to have a look at a few of the other offerings for us for the competition.
The first one we will look at is the top batsman market, where we are looking for the leading run scorer in the competition. With many of the best batsmen in the world selected for this tournament there are a number of challengers for the award.
Recent Winners
2015 – Martin Guptill (547)
2011 – Tillakaratne Dilshan (500)
2007 – Matthew Hayden (659)
2003 – Sachin Tendulkar (673)
1999 – Rahul Dravid (461)
Market Leaders
Virat Kohli will start off the tournament as the 8/1 favourite to lead the run scoring in it. That is fair enough. He is the best batsman in the world bar none but he has an infinitely better record when chasing in this format than he goes when his side set a score which is a bit of a concern for me. That said he should be able to feast on these pitches and he looks a worthy favourite, if a little on the short side given the quality on show in this event.
Jonny Bairstow is the 11/1 second favourite. The England opener looks to tick all of the boxes. He has been in good form for a while having clattered bowlers all round India in the IPL recently and then dismissing Pakistan in the ODI series over the last month. There is nothing to necessarily not like about the Englishman here although the style that England play can sometimes be to the detriment of punters in this market and their batsmen can easily get out for 40 or so when were they to rein it in a little they could get 80+.
David Warner is the 12/1 third favourite to lead the run scoring in this tournament. He is clearly a run machine but I didn’t think his form was quite where he would have wanted in the IPL even though he top scored in it. He didn’t look to be hitting the ball as well as he can do and of course he is going to be the pantomime villain everywhere he goes over the course of the event. He feels a little short on his return to the big time at this level.
Joe Root and Jason Roy are both 14/1 to be the top batsman at this event. If England go deep in the tournament as most expect them to do then you would think one of these two men will go well. Which one it will be and how well they go remains to be seen but England are heavy favourites to make the semi-final so you would think these two will have the extra match to more than half of the tournament which could be significant.
Kane Williamson and Rohit Sharma both sit at 16/1 in the betting. I like both men although my fear for Williamson would be that New Zealand don’t make the semi-final which case he is a sitting duck. Sharma should get the extra match for making the semi-final and when he goes big he goes very big indeed so he can’t be ruled out at a price which is getting closer to something that is acceptable.
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Limiting the Field
Whenever we bet on a market like this that has so many runners and riders we need to lessen the field and concentrate on a smaller pool of players in which to pick our bets out from. There are a number of factors we can use to get the field reduced a little and know where to concentrate.
Firstly it is always worth a look at who plays on which grounds. Certain grounds in any country are higher scoring than others and that is very much the case here. Trent Bridge and Taunton will be high scoring grounds in this competition while recently The Oval, Old Trafford and the Hampshire Bowl have been full of runs. If we apply a point system to the teams on show on these grounds we could whittle the field down. Trent Bridge and Taunton are the smallest grounds so teams get two points per game they have there and one for their matches at the other three grounds. That brings out scores of West Indies 10, Australia 9, England, Bangladesh, Pakistan and India 7, New Zealand have 6, South Africa and Afghanistan 5 and Sri Lanka 1.
Another way to whittle down the field is to take players from the sides who you think will make the semi-finals. It might only be an extra innings but it could be the difference between winning or not, or even making the top four or not. The other thing to remember is to take someone who will bat high up in their team’s batting order. While we will see some pyrotechnics from those lower down the order players guaranteed to get nine decent innings will outscore the cameos more often than not.
Profile
With that in mind, I’m looking for a player who is going to bat in the top three for either West Indies (on the above scoring system) or India, England, Australia or Bangladesh, the four sides who I believe will make the semi-finals of the tournament. Having applied those filters I have come up with a couple of players that I like for main bets and I’ll have a little dabble on someone at a bit of a monster price.
Betting
Steve Smith ticks all the boxes for me in this tournament. I guess it is up for debate whether he’ll bat at three or four but the way the Australian openers go after the bowling I’m not sure it will matter too much. Smith is the glue for the power hitters to bat around and I always like those glue players in these kind of events because they will bank a certain number of runs before exploding later in their innings. Smith made a century in a warm up match which shows he is in form and he has a huge stage to prove a point in which I would imagine will get his juices flowing. Australia are my pick for this tournament so it makes sense to take their most likely highest run scorer to be the leading batsman in the event at 18/1.
All eyes will be on the likes of Chris Gayle, Andre Russell and Evin Lewis for the West Indies but we shouldn’t forget Shai Hope in the mix. In his last 16 ODI innings he has five centuries, a 95, and scores of 87, 74 and 64 with some of those scores coming against India and England as well as Bangladesh. He averages more than 50 in ODI cricket, will probably bat at three and will play every match as he is the wicket keeper in the side. West Indies play three matches in Taunton or Trent Bridge which is a big advantage and at 33/1 the Barbadian looks a leading runner to me.
Finally I can’t avoid a little go at Tamim Iqbal at a big price. In the Champions Trophy in England two years ago, only two men scored more runs than Tamim and they both made the final and therefore played the extra match so that is encouraging. I’ve already said that I fancy Bangladesh will go much better than many expect them to and one of the reasons for that is the ability of Tamim. In the last year he has made two centuries and four 50s in his last 14 ODI innings so he is decent nick at the present time and at 66/1 he could easily go well enough to get himself in the mix.
Tips
Back S.Smith Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-4)
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Back S.Hope Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
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Back T.Iqbal Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
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