England vs Australia 3rd Test Betting Preview – Hosts look to bounce back in Birmingham

In what has been a topsy-turvy summer so far England have gone from abject to world beaters back to abject only to rise up to world beaters before reaching pathetic again but they will aim to rise back to a much higher status once more on Wednesday when they meet the old enemy Australia in the 3^rd Ashes Test at Edgbaston.

Australia have done things the other way. They arrived in England as unbeatable then went into a supposed crisis only to return to world beaters again. The truth is both England and Australia are good sides and with the series level at 1-1 we are sure to get a thrilling conclusion to the Test match summer.

England have made a real habit of bouncing back strongly from adversity over the last 10 years or so and boy has there been some adversity. Often England’s best performances have come off the back of abject ones and we only need to think back to earlier in the year when they came back from West Indies written off before they took apart a quality New Zealand side at Lord’s. Being written off seems to really get this side motivated.

Australia probably let themselves down in the first Test in Cardiff. Whether they fell into the trap of believing the doom and gloom around England going into that match or not only they will know but their performance levels individually and collectively were not to the level we would expect but like England they bounced back from adversity in style with a crushing win at Lord’s. That gives us reason to believe we’ll see these two sides at their best here and what a match we have if we do.

Unlike in the past England have resisted the temptation to stick with a side which just underperformed and Gary Ballance has paid the price for that. In fairness, Alastair Cook aside, any one of the top four could have got the chop but Ballance did and his Yorkshire colleague Jonny Bairstow will replace him in the team here. There has been talk that England could play two spinners here but I’ll believe that when I see it.

Australia looked like they would be forced into a change but Chris Rogers has apparently recovered from the dizzy spell which cut his second innings at Lord’s short and he is set to retain his spot at the top of the order. That could mean Australia are unchanged unless Brad Haddin makes himself available and gets put back in.

England go into this match as 7/2 pokes which is a mighty fine looking price given their record at Edgbaston. England have played at the Birmingham venue 47 times and have 24 wins and just eight defeats. Players past and present always make reference to the crowd getting behind England the most here and the ground was the scene of their finest moment in recent times when they drew level with Australia in 2005. Australia’s W-D-L record here reads 3-5-5 so it isn’t a happy hunting ground for them.

There has been a lot of talk about the wickets in this series and all eyes will be on this one to see what is coughed up. In the Championship, apart from one match which was a bit silly with 600 playing 600 they’ve generally been good cricket wickets and I expect there to be something in this one for the bowlers. The forecast for the match looks good so we should see another pulsating match.

Apart from the England win price, which I wouldn’t put anyone off taking, most of the lines and prices are about right this week but a couple have caught my eye as always!

Adam Lyth isn’t having a good series. He has looked very loose outside off stump and regardless of what pitches this series is played on from here on in that technique will continue to get exposed I’m sure. It looks even sillier not playing him in the Caribbean now and he’s paying the price form wise. Away from Headingley five of his six scores have been 12 or less and he’s under real pressure here. He has had a week to work on his technique but his first innings runs line looks too high to me at 25.5 given what we’ve seen so far in this series.

A bigger priced bet I like is for Ben Stokes to make 50 or more in the first innings. He has done that in both matches in this series so far and three of the four Tests this summer so 11/4 looks good value with that in mind. In theory England have strengthened their batting so he should be coming to the crease with the score much more attractive than it has been but whether England are cruising or in trouble we know he can score so the 11/4 on him passing 50 is well worth taking.

Back A.Lyth Under 25.5 1^st Inns Runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.85 with Betway

Back B.Stokes 1^st Inns 50 or more for a 3/10 stake at 3.75 with William Hill