England dominated the opening ODI of five against Pakistan in Southampton on Wednesday night and they head to the home of cricket on Saturday knowing that if they can come out on the right side of things at Lord’s they will go two up with just three to play.
Pakistan looked rusty and at times a little too cautious at the Ageas Bowl but they can’t afford to be shackled in this second match. They need this win to level the series as it is a long way back from here if they go 2-0 down.
England
I made the claim before the opening ODI that this format might suddenly have become England’s strongest and they showed why I put that opinion out there. They were tight, nasty and at times vicious with the ball and their batting depth must be the envy of just about every side in the world. When you think a class act like Jonny Bairstow was carrying drinks it is crazy how much depth they have.
There were plenty of positives from the performance in Southampton but arguably none were bigger than the runs that Eoin Morgan got. In the end the rain denied him a first 50 in quite some time but the runs he did make were made with calmness and assurance of a man who isn’t out of nick despite his scores in the last nine months or so.
Pakistan
I worried whether Pakistan could put up the volume of runs they will need to win this series heading into the opening match and while they have the excuse of the rain hampering them towards the end of their innings at no real point did they look like posting the kind of total which would look imposing to the home side.
We never really saw the best of Pakistan with the ball and they were always a wicket away from clawing themselves back into the match but if they have learnt to pitch the ball up a little more and if the rain stays away, which it looks like doing, to enable them to reverse swing it they should still have a part to play in this series.
Team News
Unless there is a late injury England are expected to keep the same side which played in the first match although David Willey is fit to play. The way Mark Wood bowled though Willey may have to wait for another day before his return to the side.
Pakistan will surely recall Yasir Shah to the side to give Azhar Ali come control with the ball if nothing else. It remains to be seen what they can do to change the batting line up. It might be that the batsmen that did play just have to be more expansive.
Lord’s
Surprisingly this is only the 58th ODI that will have been held on this ground and neither of these sides have a particularly strong previous record here. England have 21 wins to 25 defeats with two ties and a no result on this ground while Pakistan have four wins and six defeats from 10 outings.
Historically we’ve seen decent cricket wickets in ODIs here but in recent times the wickets haven’t offered much for the bowlers apart from the notorious slope and the batsmen have generally been able to hit through the line of the ball. With gorgeous weather in the lead up to the match I’m expecting another high scoring match here.
Betting
England have lost their last three matches on this ground which might give Pakistan some reason for optimism but until I’ve seen that they can put up enough runs to be competitive I can’t back them to win so I’ll head for the side markets for this match.
I went under eight sixes at the Ageas Bowl and never were there going to be that many but at the same time the rain came and we ended up with a void bet but much of what I said about the two sides in that match stands here too so I’ll have another go at that bet given that we mysteriously get the same line.
Lord’s isn’t as hard a ground to hit sixes on as the Ageas Bowl is but when the quality of bowling attacks that these two have are sending firecrackers down hitting sixes isn’t going to be easy anywhere and with this being an early start there might be a little more early on for the bowlers so I’ll go under again.
The other bet I like is on the run line of Jason Roy which Paddy Power have quite a bit lower than their competitors at 26.5. Roy is in sensational form at the minute and his last four completed ODI innings have been 112*, 162, 34 and 65 and he looked on course for a lot more than that until he got out at the Ageas Bowl.
He made a century here in the Championship recently and his List A and T20 form has been good too. If we ignore the 16 over slogathon against Middlesex his recent scores have been 36, 55, 34, 120*, 93* and 42. That is the sort of run that suggests he can pass 26.5.
Tips
WON – Back Under 8 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back it here:
Back J.Roy – Over 26.5 runs for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power
Back it here:
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