After the warm up part of the summer against Sri Lanka the real meat of the season begins on Thursday when Pakistan head to England to begin a four match Test series which has the potential to get the mouths watering and cricket back in the spotlight once again.
The two sides met in a very competitive series out in the UAE last winter which Pakistan won 2-0 but in conditions more familiar to them England will expect to come out on top but Pakistan are underrated and that is what makes this series so exciting.
Schedule
1st Test: 14-18 July at Lord’s
2nd Test: 22-26 July at Old Trafford
3rd Test: 3-7 August at Edgbaston
4th Test: 11-15 August at The Oval
England
Since losing in the UAE, England have picked up Test series wins in South Africa and at home to Sri Lanka but although they beat Sri Lanka there were many times in the three matches where they were in slight holes and their lower order were able to bail them out of that.
England head into the series knowing full well that Pakistan are the only side to hold a bilateral series trophy against them in this format and it would show the progress they have made if they can win this series and have all the trophies in their possession heading into a tough winter.
Pakistan
This will be Pakistan’s first series since that home win over England and it will be interesting to see if they can adapt to the English conditions. In fairness to them they have come over and played a couple of warm up matches where they have looked very impressive so they have done all they can to acclimatise.
Pakistan might actually look at these venues and think there is something in this series for them. Touring sides generally play well at Lord’s and if they can come out of there with something you would think the turning nature of Old Trafford and The Oval will give them every chance of taking something from the series.
Head to Head
These two sides have met in 23 series in the past. In total England have only won nine of them with Pakistan claiming eight wins and there being six draws. Pakistan have won the last two series but both were in the UAE. You have to go right back to 1996 when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were in their pomp for the last time Pakistan won in England.
Odds
England go into the series as the 4/11 favourites with Pakistan 6/1 while the draw is 5/1. Looking at the top England batsman market Joe Root is an 11/4 favourite while Alastair Cook is 7/2 and Alex Hales is 9/2. It is 6/1 bar England’s top three. Younis Khan is a favourite in the Pakistan equivalent market at 7/2 with Azhar Ali a 9/2 shot. Both MIsbah-ul-Haq and Mohammad Hafeez are 5/1 shots.
Moving into the bowling markets and with Jimmy Anderson out of the first Test Stuart Broad is the 2/1 favourite in the England bowler betting with Chris Woakes at 7/2 and Steven Finn 5/1. It is 8/1 bar those three. Pakistan’s market is dominated by Mohammad Amir. He is 7/4 with Yasir Shah 13/4. Rahat Ali is a 6/1 chance and Wahab Riaz 15/2.
Betting
England are going along quite nicely in Test cricket at the minute but even so they look far too short to me in this series. Although England dominated on the scoreline against Sri Lanka I don’t think we should forget that in the four innings they had in that series they were 83/5, 227/5, 84/4 and 120/5 at various points in their innings and if the top order continues to underperform I’m not convinced England’s batting depth can get them out of trouble here.
It might be left to their bowlers to get them out of the mire and while there is some inexperience in places in this Pakistan batting line up the likes of Azhar Ali, Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Asad Shafiq have all filled their boots in these conditions in the past and perhaps crucially Lord’s aside and there is no Jimmy Anderson there, there isn’t a single venue in the series where England are going to hoop the ball around corners.
In fact two of the tracks will take spin especially if we have a couple of hot weeks in the not too distant future so I truly believe if Pakistan can escape Lord’s with something they can win this series and at 6/1 I can’t resist a little dabble. I also think there is a correct score worth chancing too.
I don’t see a single draw in this series unless there is rain around but even then I would fancy a whole day will need to be lost for the chance of one. With that in mind the 50/1 that Pakistan win 3-1 is a little too big. If we give England fortress Edgbaston, Pakistan won’t be out of play in the other three so it is a runner.
In terms of the England player markets I’m not getting too involved because I don’t think the team that begins the series will be anything like the one that finishes it with Jimmy Anderson and Ben Stokes likely to come back at some point and Mark Wood potentially ready too and there are a couple of batsmen under pressure as well but there is a top batsmen who is just a silly price that I’ll pay to see how he goes.
That is Chris Woakes and while it would seem highly unlikely that he’ll top score over four matches I’ve already highlighted how England’s top order struggled collectively against a much inferior Sri Lanka attack to this Pakistan one. Woakes made 39 and 66 in the two first innings he had in that series and more contributions like that could see him competitive in a low scoring series. He’s just too big not to chance at 250/1.
Azhar Ali has begun this tour very well with a couple of centuries already but I like the look of Asad Shafiq in this series and at 10/1 there is plenty of value in him to top score for the tourists in this series. He bagged a couple of half centuries against Somerset and he has a century and three half centuries in 11 innings against England in Test cricket. Shafiq has four tons in his last nine Tests and that record makes the 10/1 quotes on him look far too big.
There isn’t much to be confident in going into this series but one thing we can be is that Mohammad Amir has a very strong chance of being Pakistan’s top bowler barring injury. We all know the background on Amir’s story and we’re not going to regurgitate that here but had he not had his misdemeanours he could very well be the best bowler in the world right now.
He has a second chance to be a superstar and if the footage of his bowling against Somerset is anything to go by he looks set to take it. I’m amazed you can get 7/4 on him taking the most wickets in this series but I’m more than happy to get stuck into it.
Tips
Back Pakistan to win the series for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Boylesports
Back them here:
Back Pakistan to win 3-1 for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfred
Back C.Woakes Top England Series Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 251.00 with Betfred
Back them here:
Back A.Shafiq Top Pakistan Series Batsman for a 2/10 stake at 11.00 with Paddy Power
Back him here:
Back M.Amir Top Pakistan Series Bowler for a 4/10 stake at 2.75 with Unibet
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2016
