The knockout stages of Euro 2020 get underway in Amsterdam on Saturday when the Group A runners up Wales take on the Group B runners up Denmark with a spot in the quarter final of the tournament the reward for the winner.
Both sides have made it through to the knockout stages despite only winning one of their three group matches. They have both been through this stage in the past too so this looks like an intriguing match to kick off the last 16.
Where to watch
This match will be shown live on BBC1 in the UK and with a Home Nation in action there is a lengthy build-up to the game. That begins at 4pm with the match kicking off at 5pm.
Wales
The Welsh have done well to come out of a competitive looking group, although in the end it wasn’t of the quality we expected from it with the exception of Italy who were too good for all. Wales kicked off the competition with a draw in which they were second best against Switzerland before they beat an awful Turkey side who a lot more was expected of. They then failed to land a blow on a second string Italy side.
Nevertheless, without looking anywhere near the side which made the semi-finals of this tournament in 2016, Wales progressed from the group and now know if they key players can start to take control of matches they are in a half of the draw where significant progress can be made. You would think we are going to need to see a real improvement in the Welsh side for them to win this though, especially in defensive areas, particularly against set pieces.
Denmark
Although Denmark have only won one match in this tournament, it shouldn’t be underplayed that the match they won was effectively a knockout match for them. After losing to Finland when the Christian Eriksen incident overshadowed that game, Denmark then somehow lost to Belgium in a match they dominated but they made no mistake when it really mattered against Russia in their final group match to book their spot in this do or die clash.
This will be the first time in the tournament that Denmark have not had home advantage so it will be interesting to see how they cope without that but they look a wonderfully progressive side who have the emotion of doing it for Eriksen motivating them. They have been very good in attack in this tournament and but for a spell where Kevin de Bruyne was pulling the strings they have been decent enough in defence as well.
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Team News
Wales boss Robert Page has said he has no injury concerns so Ethan Ampadu will be the only player he is without for this match after he was sent off against Italy. Ben Davies, Kieffer Moore and Chris Mepham were all left out against the Italians as they were on a booking but they are expected to be recalled.
Denmark also have no fresh injury concerns so they are expected to field the same side which won against Russia on Monday evening which will see them utilising three at the back once again, one of which will be Southampton defender Jannik Vestergaard.
Betting
I think Denmark will be too good here. They will have some of their fans in the crowd whereas the Welsh fans have not been allowed to travel to Amsterdam and that could be a big factor in this match. I’m not convinced Wales are all that good and unless Gareth Bale or Aaron Ramsey are bang on song I don’t see Wales winning this. Denmark are no longer the dour defensive side they were a few years ago and we saw on Monday evening that they ask questions of teams from all angles. I expect Wales to cave in eventually so it is Denmark for me.
I’ll also have a small bet on Andreas Christensen to score anytime at 22/1. He scored on Monday evening when he smashed the third one in from long range and while I don’t expect him to score like that again, he may well be a threat at set pieces where Wales have been horrible at defending. I highlighted that prior to the Italy game and but for Danny Ward in the Welsh goal, Italy could have had a couple of goals from corners and they scored from a dead ball. Switzerland also found their goal against the Welsh from a set piece so if Denmark get quality balls into the box then Christensen could make the net bulge at a big price.
Tips
Back Denmark to beat Wales for a 3/10 stake at 1.90 with Betfair
Back A.Christensen to score anytime for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfair
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