The final set of group matches begin in Euro 2024 on Sunday and the first group to conclude is Group A where Scotland will be looking to make their own piece of history when they take on Hungary in a huge clash in Stuttgart.
Scotland have a point from their first two matches and will qualify if they win this game while Hungary are without a point and need to win here and hope that three points is enough for a best third placed spot.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC1 channel in the UK with the lengthy build-up beginning at 7pm ahead of the 8pm kick off.
Scotland
After the way they were dealt with in their opening game, it would have been easy for Scotland to go under and go the way all the other teams who have got to a tournament in the past have gone. They didn’t do that though. They rebounded with a much better performance in the second game and while they couldn’t get the win they would have loved against Switzerland, they got the point which keeps them in the tournament and now a win here will see them come out of a group for the very first time.
There are clearly limitations to this Scotland side. No team has created a lower combined xG than them after two matches in the tournament and you suspect they are going to need to find much more attacking output in this game because they are beginning to run low on defenders. The one thing they don’t lack in is passion and desire and with the backing they will get from the stands it might all come together for this to be their time.
Hungary
Hungary are looking like they are going to pay the price for a terrible opening hour in their first game against Switzerland. They improved in the last half an hour but it was too little too late by then and while they played much better against Germany in the second game, they couldn’t get the ball in the back of the net and they go into this game without a point to their name, but more damagingly with a -4 goal difference which they probably need to wipe as much out as they can to give them the best chance of a best third placed spot.
Clearly Hungary are going to need their very best here and they are probably going to need to start out with a more attack minded approach because three points with a -3 goal difference isn’t going to get them very far you wouldn’t think. They need to be looking at a three goal win if they can and that will take some doing. The positive for them though is they know they have to win so there is no getting caught between playing to win and drawing.
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Team News
Scotland coach Steve Clarke will be forced into another change to his side with Kieran Tierney now ruled out of the tournament. Scott McKenna replaced him in the last game and is expected to start this one.
Marco Rossi has suggested that Sunderland midfielder Callum Styles is fit to play in this match. Dominik Szoboszlai missed out on training with the group earlier in the week but there is no sign of him not being available.
Betting
Given the way this one is set up the tendency is to think that there will be goals in this match. I’m not suggesting that there definitely won’t be but Scotland have such a lack of a genuine goal threat that I just can’t bring myself to get involved in markets where Scotland might need to contribute to the scoring. I did consider taking Hungary to win the match but even though the lack of a Scottish goal threat is very much in my mind, I am aware that they have scored in both matches and this game does still have the potential to turn crazy so I’m going to keep a Hungary to win angle on my side but I’ll play their goal line instead.
Their goal line is 1.5 goals and you can get 5/4 on that which isn’t a huge deal below the 6/4 you can get on them to win the game. Why I like this is because even if Hungary are winning the match early doors a 1-0 win isn’t really going to be of any use to them at all. A one goal win would mean they finish with three points and a -3 goal difference and you would think they would be looking at two groups for the third placed team not to get three points. That could happen but with this being the first group completed and every other team knowing what they need to get in front of Hungary it would be a more than nervous wait. The bigger the Hungary win the better their chances of progressing would be so over 1.5 goals can land in a match in which Hungary chase a bigger than one goal win or in a crazy bonkers came where the game state dictates all out attack.
Tips
Back Hungary – Over 1.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.25 with Betfair
