One of the more intriguing and potentially exciting groups at Euro 2024 is Group D where we have two heavyweight sides from the continent as well as a dangerous outsider and a team who have plenty to prove.
France are the headline act in this group but the Netherlands have a rich reputation in the tournament past while Austria have been talked up in a number of places. Poland will be out to avoid making up the numbers.
Teams
Austria
Previous Best: L16 2020
How Qualified: Runner Up Group F
Qualification Record: P8 W6 D1 L1 F17 A7 GD+10 Pts 19
Tournament Odds: 80/1
Austria have had a good qualifying campaign and are a team seemingly on the up under Ralf Rangnick. A number of their players have come through the Red Bull system headed up by the experienced coach and will be very familiar with the system and that has shown in their results in the last 12 months or so. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go well in this tournament but I would be much stronger about their chances if David Alaba was around. If they can cope with his absence there is no reason they can’t get out of the group at the very least.
Squad: Goalkeepers: Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien), Heinz Lindner (Union SG), Patrick Pentz (Brøndby)
Defenders: Flavius Daniliuc (Salzburg), Kevin Danso (Lens), Philipp Lienhart (Freiburg), Phillipp Mwene (Mainz), Stefan Posch (Bologna), Leopold Querfeld (Rapid Wien), Gernot Trauner (Feyenoord), Patrick Wimmer (Wolfsburg), Maximilian Wöber (Mönchengladbach)
Midfielders: Christoph Baumgartner (Leipzig), Florian Grillitsch (Hoffenheim), Marco Grüll (Rapid Wien), Florian Kainz (Köln), Konrad Laimer (Bayern München), Alexander Prass (Sturm Graz), Marcel Sabitzer (Dortmund), Romano Schmid (Werder Bremen), Matthias Seidl (Rapid Wien), Nicolas Seiwald (Leipzig)
Forwards: Marko Arnautović (Inter), Maximilian Entrup (Hartberg), Michael Gregoritsch (Freiburg), Andreas Weimann (West Brom)
France
Previous Best: Winners 1984 & 2000
How Qualified: Group B Winner
Qualifying Record: P8 W7 D1 L0 F29 A3 GD+26 Pts 22
Tournament Odds: 4/1 General
France are the favourites to win the tournament in the eyes of most people. A lot of the reason for that is their last six competitions record reads QF-QF-RU-WON-L16-F. That is model consistency and when you factor in that they have arguably the best player in the world in their ranks in Kylian Mbappe it is easy to see why they are fancied. They might run into England in what would be a blockbuster semi-final so that wouldn’t be ideal. The French attack looks dynamite and if their defence holds up then with the big tournament experience that they have it is hard to see them not having a real good go at this.
Squad: Goalkeepers: Alphonse Areola (West Ham), Mike Maignan (AC Milan), Brice Samba (Lens)
Defenders: Jonathan Clauss (Marseille), Theo Hernández (AC Milan), Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool), Jules Koundé (Barcelona), Ferland Mendy (Real Madrid), Benjamin Pavard (Inter), William Saliba (Arsenal), Dayot Upamecano (Bayern München)
Midfielders: Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid), Youssouf Fofana (Monaco), Antoine Griezmann (Atlético de Madrid), N’Golo Kanté (Al-Nassr), Adrien Rabiot (Juventus), Aurélien Tchouameni (Real Madrid), Warren Zaïre-Emery (Paris)
Forwards: Bradley Barcola (Paris), Kingsley Coman (Bayern München), Ousmane Dembélé (Paris), Olivier Giroud (AC Milan), Randal Kolo Muani (Paris), Kylian Mbappé (Paris), Marcus Thuram (Inter)
Netherlands
Previous Best: Winners 1988
How Qualified: Runner Up Group B
Qualifying Record: P8 W6 D0 L2 F17 A7 GD+10 Pts 18
Tournament Odds: 18/1
The Netherlands head into another crack at the Euros off the back of a quarter final at the World Cup where they took the eventual champions Argentina all the way. Ronald Koeman has returned since then to lead the side but this doesn’t look as strong a unit overall as the one they had in Qatar. The injury to Frenkie de Jong is a huge blow in the middle of the park and the lack of a top class number nine isn’t helpful. It also isn’t helpful that their elite stars all seem to play in the same position and it is centre-back so while you would expect the Dutch to be strong defensively they might lack something going forward. They also have a rotten record against France so might be playing for second place before they start.
Squad: Goalkeepers: Justin Bijlow (Feyenoord), Mark Flekken (Brentford), Bart Verbruggen (Brighton)
Defenders: Nathan Aké (Manchester City), Daley Blind (Girona), Matthijs de Ligt (Bayern München), Stefan de Vrij (Inter), Denzel Dumfries (Inter), Lutsharel Geertruida (Feyenoord), Micky van de Ven (Tottenham), Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielders: Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool), Ian Maatsen (Dortmund), Tijjani Reijnders (AC Milan), Jerdy Schouten (PSV), Joey Veerman (PSV), Georginio Wijnaldum (Al Ettifaq)
Forwards: Steven Bergwijn (Ajax), Brian Brobbey (Ajax), Memphis Depay (Atlético de Madrid), Jeremie Frimpong (Leverkusen), Cody Gakpo (Liverpool), Donyell Malen (Dortmund), Xavi Simons (Leipzig), Wout Weghorst (Hoffenheim), Joshua Zirkzee (Bologna)
Poland
Previous Best: QF 2016
How Qualified: Playoff winner
Qualifying Record: P10 W4 D3 L3 F15 A11 GD+4 Pts 15
Tournament Odds: 250/1 General
Poland were one of the latest teams into the competition and they got in by the skin of their teeth having seen off Wales in the playoff final. They didn’t have a single shot on target in that match though and that immediately sounds the warning bells and that noise has only grown louder with the news that Robert Lewandowski looks set to miss at least the opening match of the tournament. Goals are always an issue with this Poland side and while they are often tight at the back I just don’t see them putting up much of a showing if they can’t find the net regularly.
Squad: Goalkeepers: Marcin Bulka (Nice), Łukasz Skorupski (Bologna), Wojciech Szczęsny (Juventus)
Defenders: Jan Bednarek (Southampton), Bartosz Bereszyński (Empoli), Przemysław Frankowski (Lens), Jakub Kiwior (Arsenal), Tymoteusz Puchacz (Kaiserslautern), Bartosz Salamon (Lech Poznań), Sebastian Walukiewicz (Empoli)
Midfielders: Paweł Dawidowicz (Hellas Verona), Kamil Grosicki (Pogoń Szczecin), Jakub Moder (Brighton), Jakub Piotrowski (Ludogorets), Taras Romanczuk (Jagiellonia Białystok), Bartosz Slisz (Atlanta United), Damian Szymański (AEK Athens), Sebastian Szymański (Fenerbahçe), Kacper Urbański (Bologna), Nicola Zalewski (Roma), Piotr Zieliński (Napoli)
Forwards: Adam Buksa (Antalyaspor), Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona), Krzysztof Piątek (Başakşehir), Michał Skóraś (Club Brugge), Karol Świderski (Hellas Verona)
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Group Betting
As mentioned above I’m not convinced by the Netherlands in this tournament. They look a little centre-back heavy for my liking and their terrible record against the French, whom they lost twice to in qualifying and have to go up against again, effectively has them playing two games to try and secure a top two finish and I’m not convinced it is happening. Admittedly, the Dutch have been helped with Robert Lewandowski out for their match against Poland but I’m still not certain they hit the top two.
I can’t see anything but France winning the group. They look far too strong for all of these when you consider they have twice proven recently that they have the number of the Dutch so the best way to play this section might well be to take the straight forecast for France to come first and Austria to come second. Austria are a settled side who have plenty to offer even allowing for the fact that they are without David Alaba. It might be that the match between Austria and the Netherlands determines second spot and at 6/1 I’ll pay to see if it is Austria who take it.
Team Betting
There isn’t a huge amount to take out of the team markets for this group. They all seem to be fairly clued in with the likely runners and riders in all of the goalscorer markets generally being in the right place so I’m not inclined to take anything from there but I am itching to fade Poland in this tournament now that we know that Robert Lewandowski is expected to miss the first game and might not make the second one either.
That makes me think that the Poles might struggle for points in this competition. I don’t give them anything against France even allowing for the fact that is their last game and with no Lewandowski I think Robert Koeman can pick a Dutch side to beat them and as I’ve alluded to above I quite like Austria in this section. I guess the danger is that they might sneak a draw somewhere but if they lose to the Dutch they might need to open up against the Austrians which could make them vulnerable and then they could go into the last game with France on zero points where I would expect them to remain.
Tips
Back France-Austria Straight Forecast for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with Bet365
Back Poland 0 points for a 1/10 stake at 5.50 with Bet365
