The world champions Germany will look to make it into the quarter finals of the European Championship on Sunday afternoon when they take on recent foes Slovakia in Lille. These two met just before the tournament in a friendly which Slovakia won 3-1.
Germany breezed into this knockout stage by topping their group as you would expect while Slovakia frustrated England enough to secure one of the best third placed finishes and qualify for this last 16 clash.
In a way Germany have been quite hard to read in this tournament. In all three matches they have looked vulnerable defensively and yet they still haven’t conceded a goal. They haven’t truly clicked up top just yet either so they will know there is a lot more to give.
If there has been one issue so far it was the false nine idea they’ve been going with which just didn’t work. They would like to get Thomas Muller into the dangerous positions a lot more but as with the other big nations who are through this tournament really begins now for Germany.
Key Man
If Slovakia employ the same tactics they did against England then Germany will need someone to open up a defence and that man is most likely to be Mesut Ozil. Ozil’s assist rate is crazy but he has an eye for goal too. He is capable of taking the ball to the defensive line or seeing a pass from deeper positions. When he is on the ball the Slovakians need to watch out.
Slovakia took a lot of stick for their tactics against England but it isn’t their tactics that should cop the blame it is the new format which allows for sides to protect their position in the final matches and make it through. It will be interesting to see if they employ the same tactics in this match.
I’m not entirely convinced they will because when we saw them play normally in their first two matches they actually looked a threat with Marek Hamsik one of the more eye catching players of the tournament. From a neutral point of view hopefully that friendly win will give Slovakia the belief they can go toe to toe with Germany a little more.
Key Man
You’ve got to think that Slovakia will have plenty of defending to do in this match in which case their captain Martin Skrtel is going to be an important figure. Not only will he need to defend like a Trojan like he did in the England match but he’ll need to organise those around him to make sure they remain tight too. He has a big job on his hands.
Team News
Jerome Boateng was substituted against Northern Ireland last time out but he appears to have recovered from the injury he picked up so if Joachim Low wants to name an unchanged side he can do. There is talk Bastian Schweinsteiger might start.
Slovakia have a couple of injury concerns going into the match. Dusan Svento and key midfielder Robert Mak are battling knocks and it would be a blow if either miss out. Peter Pekarik was really down against England but he has been passed fit to play.
Head to Head
There have been 10 previous meetings between the two including that friendly at the beginning of the month. That win was Slovakia’s third in those games while Germany have won seven. There has never been a draw between the two teams. Past matches have been high scoring which gives optimism that we might see a good game but again that is all on Slovakia.
Betting
When betting on this match I think we have to second guess Slovakia’s tactics and the fact that they have gone with two totally different styles in the tournament doesn’t make that any easier. With this being a knockout match if they are to avoid the dreaded penalties they are going to have to score at some point so hopefully that will bring them out a little.
I’m going to play slightly safe and not second guess how they will play but how I think the match will go and that is similar to Germany’s match against the Ukraine. However Slovakia play they are going to have to do a lot of defending and if they hold out the longer they go the more pressure they will be under and if they have already conceded the deeper the match goes the more risks they will have to take.
Germany were in exactly that position in their opening game against a Ukraine side who were happy to defend and then play on the break and whether it is Germany pushing for a winner late on or Slovakia pushing men forward and leaving themselves exposed I fancy this is the game where a late goal can be scored.
There were late goals in both of Slovakia’s opening two matches and I fancy this will be a third game of the tournament where that happens so I’m going to take the time of the last goal to be after the 71st minute.
Tips
Back Time of Last Goal – AFTER 71st Minute for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power
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