Austria went into Euro2016 highly touted to do well but they have failed to win either of their first two matches in the tournament and now find themselves drinking at the last chance saloon on Wednesday when they take on Iceland in their final Group F match.
Despite failing to win so far Austria know they will go through as a best third placed side at worst if they can win this match but Iceland know that they only need to avoid defeat and they will be safely into the knockout stages so there is plenty on this one.
Iceland have been talked about like they are non-league minnows in this tournament but nothing they have done in the competition so far has surprised me. They set up to be tough to beat and if they get something at the other end that is a bonus. That said when they do attack they get numbers forward.
Iceland were desperately close to their first ever tournament win when they led Hungary with time ticking down but a dramatic late own goal meant they had to settle for a second draw but a third one of those will see them through to the last 16 which would be another excellent story to follow those written by the likes of Wales and Northern Ireland before them.
Key Man
Eidur Gudjohnsen came off the bench against Hungary and nearly scored the winner in injury time. He probably won’t start this match but at some point he could well come on even if it is only to hold the ball up and see the clock down but were Iceland to fall behind and need a goal then the former Chelsea and Bolton star would be one such person to provide it.
Austria have been the disappointment of the tournament for me so far. I had really high hopes of them coming into the competition but they have flattered to deceive thus far. That said they still have a good chance to qualify and if and when they do that this tournament becomes a totally different proposition.
I think the weight of expectation has weighed them down slightly in this tournament so far but if they can release the shackles now that they have to win the match then that could bring their best performance of the tournament out of them. They will probably need their best here it has to be said.
Key Man
David Alaba played further forward in the previous match and that is a role he is likely to fulfil again here. He is clearly the best player in this side and if he can find space between the lines his side should be able to prosper from that. His intricate passing and his eye for a goal are really needed by the Austrians here.
Team News
Iceland have a number of players on a booking but they can’t afford to rest them with them needing a result in this game. Aron Gunnarsson looked to pick up an injury in the previous match but he has declared himself fit to start.
Austria could welcome the centre back Aleksandar Dragovic back for this match after he missed the Portugal game through suspension. Unfortunately playmaker Zlatko Junuzovic is expected to miss out once again due to the ankle injury which saw him miss the Portugal match. Marc Janko could be recalled.
Head to Head
There have only been three matches between these two in the past. Austria have won one and the other two have both been drawn. This is the best Iceland side Austria will have faced though so I’m not sure how much we should read in that record.
Betting
I think this will be a tight game. The tension around the game and the need for the result will dictate that this is going to be tight and in the end it could be that a little bit of magic breaks the deadlock.
I find this match the hardest one to read in terms of style. I’m thinking Iceland will shut the shop up and look to get the draw they need to go into the knockout stages. While a win would see them finish higher in the group I can’t believe they would risk defeat to push for a victory so I think Austria are going to have to break Iceland down.
On what we’ve seen so far in the tournament that wouldn’t look likely but when Iceland went into protection mode against Hungary they were wobbling long before the equaliser came and that would be my concern here. Austria have more quality than Hungary and as such they should be able to break Iceland down more regularly.
There will be ups and downs in this match I’m sure but whether I’m right and it is tight or I’m wrong and it isn’t tight at all I fancy this is the game the real Austrians turn up and send themselves into the knockout stages. They have the freedom of mind of knowing they have to win unlike Iceland who could get caught between sticking and twisting. Austria for me.
Tips
Back Austria to beat Iceland for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Betfair
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