After a deep and disappointing defeat to Belgium in their last game the Republic of Ireland go into their final Group E match in Euro2016 on Wednesday evening knowing they have to beat Italy or they will be going home at the earliest opportunity.
Italy have no concerns like that. Win lose or draw they have won the group and they now know they will be facing Spain in the last 16 in Paris on Monday afternoon. That could be important when we look back on this one.
Going into the tournament Italy were written off as much as a side with their tournament record could be but it didn’t take long for that to change. They destroyed Belgium in their first match in what was a tactical masterclass from Antonio Conte but they looked laboured in their match with Sweden.
I guess it is the sign of a good side that they can play below their best and still win the game but the one thing that was clear to see throughout that match was the amount of options that Conte has at his disposal. People questioned those options but they won’t be anymore.
Key Man
With all the changes Italy are likely to make it is hard to pin down a key man but with Graziano Pelle playing in the Premier League he will know the ins and outs of the Irish defence and how to get the better of them. Whether that equates to goals of his own or for others remains to be seen but the Southampton could be a key man.
After surrendering a lead to Sweden in their opening match and the disappointment that came with it those emotions only got heavier after the way they were brutally opened up by Belgium in the second match. After the first goal went in Ireland were awful in that match and it will have taken some effort to recover from that in a short space of time.
The time has come for Ireland to drop the shackles and go out and play with freedom and attack. They haven’t attacked very well in the tournament so far but they don’t want their defence to be under too much pressure here because it has cracked quite easily so far in the tournament.
Key Man
Shane Long has the ability to be a pain in the neck to this aging Italian defence. Long runs all day and runs into key areas, areas no defence want to be going let alone elderly defenders like the Italians have. If Ireland can feed Long in the channels they might just get some rewards.
Team News
Gigi Buffon has been suffering from a fever while Antonio Candreva suffered an injury against Sweden so both might sit this one out in what is expected to be a much changed Italian side. Antonio Conte has confirmed he will make widespread changes for this game.
Ireland will be sweating over the fitness of Jon Walters after he missed the Belgium defeat. They have a few players on a booking but they don’t have the opportunity to rest them. All eyes will be on Martin O’Neill to see if Robbie Keane starts this must win match.
Head to Head
Italy have won nine of the 14 matches these two have played in the past and there have been three draws but the Irish have won twice with the most recent of those coming in 2011 so they do have recent memories of beating the Italians. They also have memories of that famous day in USA in 1994 when they beat Italy in the World Cup. They won’t lack for inspiration.
Betting
A look at the odds in this match clearly shows Italy have been written off just because they are talking about resting players but the options they have aren’t useless. They have a good squad and we get the chance to see that here.
No matter which Italian side goes out I have concerns over this Irish defence. It doesn’t get brilliant protection and being frank I’m not convinced it is good enough at this level. It works fine in qualifying but these tournaments is a different beast and they are now five matches without a win in European Championship football.
You don’t really get the chance to play with freedom and express yourself very often in this game but Italy have that here. They are painted as a dour and defensive side but their manager can’t be described that. Yes they might make changes but that doesn’t mean they will be too inferior to this Ireland side. Given the prices we are getting on the Italians I think we have to take them as value. If Italy had anything competitive riding on this they will be odds on. The value is in them.
Italy vs Republic of Ireland Tips
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