Romania and Albania go into their final group battle in Lyon knowing if they are to remain in Euro2016 they have to win and to give themselves the best chance of qualifying that win needs to be a big win too so what looked like being a potentially negative match at the start of the tournament could actually been quite an entertaining one.
Romania will probably consider themselves unfortunate to only have one point from their two matches so far because they have had opportunities to have plenty more but an inability to take key chances against France and to hold on against Switzerland have left them fighting hard to remain in the tournament.
The Romanians showed that they are defensively stable against France but it was a concern how Switzerland opened them up almost at will at times. They will need to keep the back door shut here because you can’t see them scoring twice were they to go behind.
Key Man
In must win matches you need your top scorers to step up and be counted. Bogdan Stancu has only bagged a couple of penalties so far in the tournament but that poise and nerve could be needed again here. He is the man the side will look towards to fire them into the knockout stages.
Anyone who thought Albania would be the whipping boys going into the tournament have been made to think again with their exciting performances so far. Had they taken the chances they had created it could be them who were in the box seat to come through the group.
As it is those chances were missed and they couldn’t quite hold on to the coattails of France for the entire 90 minutes and that has left them needing snookers to make it through here. Even a win might not be enough to send them through. With a -3 goal difference a tiny win might well be of no use to them either.
Key Man
Like Romania, Albania are going to be looking to their main man for firepower and for goals and that is Armando Sadiku. He has had chances to score already in the tournament but he hasn’t quite had the composure to do it. If he can compose himself he could become a national hero here.
Team News
Romania have a couple of players on yellow cards but they are in no position to rest anyone with the predicament that they are in. Mihai Pintilii and Razvan Rat both have niggles and are going to have their fitness tested ahead of the game.
Albania will welcome their captain Lorik Cana back into the side for this one after he was suspended for the France match after his red card against Switzerland in the first game. Taulant Xhaka is expected to be recalled too and with the need to attack Shkelzen Gashi could start.
Head to Head
Romania have dominated the past record between these two sides. They have won 10 matches, drawn four and lost two and they are undefeated in 13 matches against the Albanians. That is largely irrelevant here though because for much of that time Albania were establishing themselves and were the whipping boys. That is no longer the case though.
Betting
I’ll be interested to see how this one plays out. In theory we have two heavily defensive orientated sides in action here but they can’t be too defensive in this one so I suspect the side who are the bravest will be the ones to come out on top in the game.
On top of that we have the psychological element to take into account too. Romania won’t have gone into too many matches at tournament level as the favourites to win a game nor needing to win to survive so this is new ground for them in many ways and they’ve yet to really show their worth in attacking areas.
Actually of the two sides I think Albania have shown much more fluency in attack in the tournament just without the composure but if they can settle into this match and pop the ball around early and ramp up the pressure on Romania they could get them to crack.
I can’t say I fancy too much in this match as it could be anything at all given the situation that has arisen but I’ve a sneaky feeling we might see a Romania side that is heavily shackled. The first goal is massive in this match but if Albania can get it they might just cling on.
Tips
WON – Back Albania to beat Romania for a 2/10 stake at 3.70 with Unibet
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