D-Day has arrived for Wales as far as their Euro2016 future is concerned. They go into their final group match with Russia on Monday night knowing full well that if they win the match they are guaranteed to qualify. If they draw and England win they will also progress but if they lose they face the very real possibility of being knocked out.
Russia have a simple mindset here. They go into the match knowing if they are to have any chance of escaping the group they have to win. If they do that and England win then Russia will qualify. If they win and England don’t win the calculations get a little messy.
I have to say Russia have been awful in this tournament so far and they can count themselves very fortunate that they still have a chance of making it out of this group but they have no chance if they don’t improve on what they have shown us to date in the competition.
They have been exposed defensively throughout the competition and have offered little going forward apart from in the last 10 minutes of matches when teams have sat back and taken what they have against them. The form of Austria and Sweden, Russia’s two toughest opponents in qualifying haven’t boosted Russia’s form either.
Key Man
Denis Glushakov came off the bench and got Russia back into their match with Slovakia last week but ultimately his side couldn’t get the equaliser. With the need to win as big as it is it would be a surprise were he not to start the match and therefore not be the one to make things happen should they actually happen.
Wales started this tournament perfectly with a 2-1 win over Slovakia in their first match but I sensed all along that they got a bit giddy with that win and started goading and taunting England ahead of the second match and that was so absolutely pointless. I’ve noticed they have gone the other way ahead of this one and made a firm effort to take the pressure off themselves and that is no bad thing.
Gareth Bale has been at the centre of most which has been good about Wales in this tournament so far but I think if the Welsh are being honest they would admit they’ve not played well yet. Maybe it was fear and trepidation but I think they rightly see Russia as the easiest of their three opponents and so with that I’m expecting their most confident performance here.
Key Man
I’ve tried not to be obvious with the men I’ve picked out as the key ones in this tournament but sometimes there is no choice and this is one such time as Gareth Bale is going to be pivotal to the result here. If the Real Madrid star has a good game and makes a big impact on it then Wales have a chance to win. If he is snuffed out they won’t win it is that simple.
Team News
It looks like Russia are going to be without their playmaker Igor Shatov who picked up an injury in the last match so Glushakov could be the one to come in for him. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if plenty more changes are made such is how poor Russia have been thus far.
Wales may well pick the same side that lost to England in their previous match although they seemed to offer more in both matches when Jonny Williams was on the pitch. Joe Ledley has passed himself fit to play despite coming off against England.
Head to Head
Since the USSR disbanded and Russia became Russia these two nations have met on four occasions with Russia winning three times and the other game being a draw. It is the last three matches that Russia have won although you have to go back seven years since their last meeting and Gareth Bale has emerged onto the scene since then.
Betting
Under no circumstances can I be backing Russia as the favourites for this match. They have been awful in the tournament so far. It might be that the must win nature of the game sharpens them up a little bit but they are an aging side especially in defence and one I believe are there for the taking.
The question comes in light of whether Wales have the positivity about them to do the taking. We know the background of their success has been on a strong defence and seeing what they can get but I don’t think they want to be inviting Russia onto them if they can help it.
At the prices I’m going to back Wales here. I do have a couple of concerns not just their defensive style. I worry if they go behind. Do they have enough to come back into it and I’m also slightly concerned by the fact a draw is enough if England are winning but even so there is nothing like going through in winning form so at a price far too high in relation to the chance I give them of winning this match I’m with the Welsh here.
Tips
WON – Back Wales to beat Russia for a 3/10 stake at 3.10 with Ladbrokes
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